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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast

CBS

Away

Bears

7-2

56%

at

Home

Lions

6-2

44%

The pick
CHI · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
26–24
Fair odds
-129

Your pick

Ford Field · CBS

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bears at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Bears rate higher (1671 to 1598 Elo), the Lions have home field and quarterback changes favor the Bears.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bears

Now 91%

95%

with a win

85%

with a loss

This game is worth 10 points of playoff chance to them.

Lions

Now 77%

86%

with a win

70%

with a loss

This game is worth 16 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Bears 56%

Lean
CHI 56%DET 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CHI 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHI -2.5
CHI 58%
Fair odds
CHI -129
DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CHI 26.0 – 24.2 DET
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHIDETWhy
Team rating16711598Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+22—CHI: Caleb Williams · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsCHI +58 EloCHI 58.3%
Market-implied ratingsCHI 50.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHI 56.4%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

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Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions compared, with each team's league rank
CHIStatDET
7th of 3226.8Points scored27.85th of 32
9th of 3220.4Points allowed23.617th of 32
6th of 32+6.3Margin+4.19th of 32
15th of 325.43Yards per play5.817th of 32
30th of 325.94Yards allowed per play5.4221st of 32
2nd of 323–1Road vs home4–01st of 32
18th of 321493Opponent Elo147426th of 32
2nd of 321671Elo rating15989th of 32
9th of 32+1.4Offense, adjusted+3.82nd of 32
13th of 32+0.4Defense, adjusted−0.619th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BearsLions
1350145015501650league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bears

25 listed

  • Zavion Thomas WR

    Active

    Thomas hauled in one of his two targets for 13 yards and returned three kicks for 88 yards during Chicago's win versus Tampa Bay on Sunday.

  • Sam Roush TE

    Active

    Roush caught both of his two targets for 23 yards during Sunday's 27-24 win versus the Buccaneers.

  • Roschon Johnson RB

    Active

    Johnson recorded two tackles on special teams during the Bears' 27-24 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.

  • Kalif Raymond WR

    Active

    Raymond caught four passes for 32 yards on seven targets in Sunday night's 27-24 win over the Bucs.

  • Cairo Santos PK

    Active

    Santos made both of his two field-goal attempts and converted all three of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 27-24 win versus the Buccaneers.

  • Kyle Monangai RB

    Out

    out

  • Malik Muhammad II CB

    Out

    out

  • Jayden Loving DT

    Active

  • Keyshaun Elliott LB

    Active

  • Colston Loveland TE

    Active

    Loveland caught four of six targets for 54 yards in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.

  • Rome Odunze WR

    Active

    Odunze caught four of seven targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.

  • D'Andre Swift RB

    Active

    Swift rushed 12 times for 31 yards and didn't catch his lone target in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Buccaneers.

Lions

25 listed

  • Isaac TeSlaa WR

    Active

    TeSlaa registered one catch for nine yards on two targets in Sunday's 19-9 win over Miami.

  • Sione Vaki RB

    Active

    Vaki turned three carries into 14 yards and hauled in both of his targets for seven yards during the Lions'

  • Kerby Joseph S

    Out

    Lions head coach Dan Campbell ruled Joseph (knee) out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.

  • Sam LaPorta TE

    Active

    The Lions have received trade calls on LaPorta leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the team prefers to keep him with the hope of signing the tight end to a long-term deal, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.

  • DJ Wonnum LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • D.J. Reed CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Jacob Saylors RB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Cade Mays C

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Andre Cisco S

    Active

    The Lions acquired Cisco from the Jets on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

  • Ahmed Hassanein DE

    Active

  • Mekhi Wingo DT

    Active

  • Jake Bates PK

    Active

    Bates went 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his only extra-point try during Sunday's 19-9 win over the Dolphins.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHIDET
Against the spread6–33–3–2
Last 106–33–3–2
Favorite4–33–2–2
Underdog2–00–1
Overs–unders5–45–3
Overs–unders, last 105–45–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHI 1–5 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.