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Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast

NBA TV

Away

76ers

9-3

31%

at

Home

Rockets

8-3

69%

The pick
HOU · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
107–113
Fair odds
-228

Your pick

Toyota Center (Houston) · NBA TV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 69%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1511 Elo), lineup changes favor the 76ers and the 76ers are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

76ers

Now 90%

92%

with a win

89%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Rockets

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rockets 69%

Solid
PHI 31%HOU 69%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU -4.5
HOU 67%
Fair odds
HOU -228
PHI +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHI 106.7 – 112.9 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIHOUWhy
Team rating15111604Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—PHI on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+63+16PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsHOU +122 EloHOU 66.8%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 69.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 69.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatHOU
23rd of 30110.2Points scored115.513th of 30
8th of 30109.2Points allowed106.45th of 30
16th of 30+1.0Margin+9.15th of 30
22nd of 30108.5Offense rating116.66th of 30
8th of 30107.5Defense rating107.47th of 30
16th of 30101.4Pace99.026th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 107–35th of 28
3rd of 305–1Road vs home5–14th of 30
8th of 301521Opponent Elo15442nd of 30
15th of 301511Elo rating16048th of 30
22nd of 30−1.0Offense, adjusted0.017th of 30
9th of 30+1.4Defense, adjusted+4.66th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Rockets

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jabari Smith Jr.3518.6Available
Alperen Sengun3325.7Available
Kevin Durant3325.9Available
Amen Thompson3222.5Available
Fred VanVleet2919.7Available
Tari Eason2219.1Available
Marcus Smart1916.1Available
Reed Sheppard1918.7Available
Bogdan Bogdanovic817.0Available
Oscar Tshiebwe520.0Available
Steven Adams—20.9Out−1
Clint Capela—20.5Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersRockets
1350140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Rockets

2 listed

  • Clint Capela C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

  • Steven Adams C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIHOU
Against the spread6–58–2
Last 105–58–2
Favorite3–47–2
Underdog3–11–0
Overs–unders5–66–4
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.