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Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast

DAZN IND

Away

Pacers

3-8

44%

at

Home

Bulls

1-8

56%

The pick
CHI · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
117–119
Fair odds
-125

Your pick

United Center · DAZN IND

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bulls at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Pacers, the Pacers are on a back-to-back and the Bulls have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pacers

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Bulls 56%

Lean
IND 44%CHI 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CHI 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHI -0.5
CHI 52%
Fair odds
CHI -125
IND +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
IND 117.2 – 118.9 CHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDCHIWhy
Team rating13801371Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—IND on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+19−37IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsCHI +11 EloCHI 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsCHI 56.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHI 55.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatCHI
20th of 30111.4Points scored112.718th of 30
20th of 30115.2Points allowed129.330th of 30
18th of 30−3.8Margin−16.730th of 30
21st of 30108.8Offense rating105.426th of 30
18th of 30112.5Defense rating121.030th of 30
8th of 30102.1Pace107.01st of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home0–327th of 30
29th of 301442Opponent Elo15383rd of 30
24th of 301380Elo rating137125th of 30
23rd of 30−1.2Offense, adjusted+0.911th of 30
23rd of 30−2.3Defense, adjusted−7.530th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersBulls
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDCHI
Against the spread3–44–5
Last 103–44–5
Favorite0–30–1
Underdog3–14–4
Overs–unders2–56–3
Overs–unders, last 102–56–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 8–4 CHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.