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San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast

DAZN SAS

Away

Spurs

9-2

89%

at

Home

Kings

1-10

11%

The pick
SA · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
121–105
Fair odds
-812

Your pick

Golden 1 Center · DAZN SAS

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 89%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1352 Elo), the Kings have home court and lineup changes favor the Kings.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Spurs

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Spurs 89%

Strong
SA 89%SAC 11%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
SA 89%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SA -9.5
SA 82%
Fair odds
SA -812
SAC +812 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
SA 121.1 – 105.2 SAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSASACWhy
Team rating16701352Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups0+18SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsSA +264 EloSA 82.1%
Market-implied ratingsSA 89.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSA 89.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
San Antonio Spurs and Sacramento Kings compared, with each team's league rank
SAStatSAC
4th of 30118.7Points scored108.324th of 30
6th of 30107.0Points allowed121.027th of 30
1st of 30+11.7Margin−12.728th of 30
5th of 30116.6Offense rating106.024th of 30
4th of 30105.1Defense rating118.428th of 30
18th of 30101.0Pace102.26th of 30
1st of 289–1Last 101–926th of 28
1st of 305–0Road vs home0–627th of 30
25th of 301470Opponent Elo151712th of 30
1st of 301670Elo rating135227th of 30
2nd of 30+2.9Offense, adjusted−2.727th of 30
5th of 30+4.7Defense, adjusted−4.028th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Spurs

0 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Dylan Harper2924.1Available
Stephon Castle2822.0Available
De'Aaron Fox2724.0Available
Victor Wembanyama2735.5Available
Keldon Johnson2419.7Available
Julian Champagnie2419.1Available
Devin Vassell1719.6Day-To-Day
Harrison Barnes1517.8Available
Luke Kornet1419.8Available
Carter Bryant1014.2Available
Jordan McLaughlin717.2Available
Maliq Brown617.9Available

Kings

+18 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3617.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3216.6Available
Domantas Sabonis3123.4Available
Zach LaVine3017.6Available
Keegan Murray2514.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2116.7Available
Leaky Black1912.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1815.4Available
Malik Monk1517.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden712.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out
Precious Achiuwa—15.7Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SpursKings
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Spurs

3 listed

  • Devin Vassell G

    Day-To-Day

    Vassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.

  • Tobias Harris F

    Out

    Harris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.

  • Jayden Quaintance F

    Out

    Quaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Out

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSASAC
Against the spread5–64–5
Last 105–54–5
Favorite5–6—
Underdog—4–5
Overs–unders3–84–5
Overs–unders, last 103–74–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SA 7–5 SAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.