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Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast

KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Away

Mavericks

7-4

66%

at

Home

Jazz

1-10

34%

The pick
DAL · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–113
Fair odds
-197

Your pick

Delta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Mavericks at 66%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Mavericks rate higher (1468 to 1309 Elo), lineup changes favor the Mavericks and the Mavericks are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Mavericks

Now 17%

18%

with a win

14%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Jazz

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Mavericks 66%

Solid
DAL 66%UTAH 34%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -5.5
DAL 71%
Fair odds
DAL -197
UTAH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
DAL 117.6 – 112.5 UTAH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALUTAHWhy
Team rating14681309Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—DAL on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+38−31DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −13, Morez Johnson Jr. (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsDAL +152 EloDAL 70.6%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 65.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 66.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatUTAH
14th of 30114.9Points scored106.528th of 30
9th of 30110.3Points allowed117.623rd of 30
12th of 30+4.6Margin−11.226th of 30
11th of 30113.3Offense rating102.529th of 30
10th of 30108.8Defense rating113.321st of 30
20th of 30100.8Pace102.011th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 101–926th of 28
12th of 302–2Road vs home1–525th of 30
19th of 301493Opponent Elo15266th of 30
20th of 301468Elo rating130930th of 30
12th of 30+0.8Offense, adjusted−2.225th of 30
18th of 30−0.9Defense, adjusted−4.027th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cooper Flagg3322.5Available
P.J. Washington3115.2Available
Kyrie Irving3125.2Available
Naji Marshall2117.5Available
Daniel Gafford2021.6Available
Santi Aldama2018.9Available
Walter Clayton Jr.1914.3Available
Zaccharie Risacher1815.7Available
Caleb Martin1711.6Available
Max Christie1312.4Available
Morez Johnson Jr.918.5Day-To-Day−2
Marcus Sasser516.9Available

Jazz

−31 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Ace Bailey3413.1Available
Darryn Peterson3216.5Available
Jaxson Hayes2518.3Available
Josh Green2412.4Available
Josh Okogie2213.6Available
Isaiah Collier1913.7Available
Svi Mykhailiuk1713.9Available
Brice Sensabaugh1715.1Available
Mo Bamba1515.9Available
Kyle Filipowski1216.7Available
Tony Bradley916.2Available
Harrison Ingram618.3Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksJazz
1200125013001350140014501500NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Mavericks

4 listed

  • Morez Johnson Jr. F

    Day-To-Day

    Johnson (leg) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Pacers.

  • Sergio de Larrea F

    Out

    De Larrea (knee) is out for Friday's game against Utah.

  • Tarik Biberovic F

    Out

    Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.

  • Dereck Lively II C

    Out

    Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.

Jazz

4 listed

  • Lauri Markkanen F

    Out

    Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.

  • Keyonte George G

    Out

    George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.

  • Jusuf Nurkic C

    Out

    Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. F

    Out

    Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALUTAH
Against the spread7–32–8
Last 107–32–8
Favorite2–10–1
Underdog5–22–7
Overs–unders2–81–9
Overs–unders, last 102–81–9

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 8–4 UTAH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.