Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 73%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Nuggets rate higher (1542 to 1371 Elo), lineup changes favor the Nuggets and the Bulls have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nuggets
Now 80%
82%
with a win
76%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Bulls
Now <1%
1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 74%
- Fair odds
- DEN -272
- CHI +272 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DEN 122.3 – 114.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −37 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +178 Elo | DEN 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 112.718th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 129.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −16.730th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 105.426th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 121.030th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 107.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15383rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301542 | Elo rating | 137125th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.9 | Offense, adjusted | +0.911th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Defense, adjusted | −7.530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nuggets
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 26.6 | Available |
| Nikola Jokic | 33 | 36.5 | Available |
| Christian Braun | 29 | 19.1 | Available |
| Cameron Johnson | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 22.3 | Available |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 19.3 | Available |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Trevon Brazile | 16 | 18.0 | Available |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 19.3 | Available |
| Tyus Jones | 8 | 14.4 | Available |
| Bryce Hopkins | 6 | 16.9 | Available |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 16.2 | Available |
Bulls
−37 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | 28 | 20.9 | Available |
| Caleb Wilson | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Matas Buzelis | 25 | 15.9 | Available |
| Jalen Smith | 21 | 20.7 | Available |
| Nic Claxton | 20 | 15.1 | Available |
| Isaac Okoro | 19 | 12.3 | Available |
| Tre Jones | 17 | 20.2 | Available |
| Norman Powell | 15 | 21.2 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Patrick Williams | 14 | 10.7 | Available |
| Noa Essengue | 12 | 14.8 | Available |
| Leonard Miller | 12 | 17.1 | Available |
| Jordan Hawkins | 9 | 11.8 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nuggets
1 listedJulian Strawther G
OutStrawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Bulls
3 listedNorman Powell G
Day-To-DayPowell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.
Tobe Awaka F
Day-To-DayAwaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Zach Collins F
Day-To-DayCollins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–3 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.