Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
- The pick
- POR · Strong
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 119–108
- Fair odds
- -442
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Trail Blazers at 82%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Trail Blazers rate higher (1524 to 1360 Elo), lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers and the Bucks are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Trail Blazers
Now 67%
68%
with a win
62%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Bucks
Now <1%
0%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Trail Blazers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -9
- POR 81%
- Fair odds
- POR -442
- MIL +442 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- POR 119.1 – 107.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | −38 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | POR +250 Elo | POR 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 81.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 81.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+7.0 | Margin | −14.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 105.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15325th of 30 |
| 12th of 301524 | Elo rating | 136026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.6 | Offense, adjusted | −3.828th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Defense, adjusted | −3.725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Trail Blazers
+44 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 23.1 | Available |
| Toumani Camara | 28 | 15.0 | Available |
| Damian Lillard | 27 | 25.7 | Available |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 20.6 | Available |
| Donovan Clingan | 25 | 21.8 | Available |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 14.7 | Available |
| Sidy Cissoko | 22 | 12.9 | Available |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 22.8 | Available |
| Chris Youngblood | 13 | 17.1 | Available |
| Yang Hansen | 8 | 13.1 | Available |
| Branden Carlson | 7 | 18.8 | Available |
| Micah Potter | 6 | 15.7 | Available |
Bucks
−38 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | 28 | 13.9 | Available |
| Myles Turner | 28 | 16.7 | Available |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Brayden Burries | 26 | 16.1 | Available |
| Ryan Rollins | 23 | 18.0 | Available |
| AJ Green | 19 | 12.2 | Available |
| Nate Ament | 19 | 16.0 | Available |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 18 | 15.5 | Available |
| Kel'el Ware | 17 | 20.0 | Available |
| Ousmane Dieng | 13 | 12.5 | Available |
| Jericho Sims | 10 | 12.9 | Available |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 5 | 12.5 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Trail Blazers
3 listedJa Morant G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.
Vit Krejci G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Shaedon Sharpe G
OutSharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Bucks
1 listedTyler Herro G
OutHerro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 5–1 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.