Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast

DAZN (YES)

Away

Bulls

1-8

43%

at

Home

Nets

2-8

57%

The pick
BKN · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
115–117
Fair odds
-133

Your pick

Barclays Center · DAZN (YES)

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nets at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Nets, the Bulls rate higher (1371 to 1335 Elo) and the Nets have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Nets 57%

Lean
CHI 43%BKN 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BKN 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BKN -2.5
BKN 61%
Fair odds
BKN -133
CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CHI 114.8 – 116.9 BKN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHIBKNWhy
Team rating13711335Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−37+38CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsBKN +75 EloBKN 60.6%
Market-implied ratingsBKN 56.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBKN 57.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets compared, with each team's league rank
CHIStatBKN
18th of 30112.7Points scored106.727th of 30
30th of 30129.3Points allowed115.721st of 30
30th of 30−16.7Margin−9.025th of 30
26th of 30105.4Offense rating104.128th of 30
30th of 30121.0Defense rating112.919th of 30
1st of 30107.0Pace101.514th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home1–323rd of 30
3rd of 301538Opponent Elo151910th of 30
25th of 301371Elo rating133528th of 30
11th of 30+0.9Offense, adjusted−4.729th of 30
30th of 30−7.5Defense, adjusted−1.420th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BullsNets
1250135014501550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHIBKN
Against the spread4–54–3
Last 104–54–3
Favorite0–10–1
Underdog4–44–2
Overs–unders6–33–4
Overs–unders, last 106–33–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHI 3–7 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.