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Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Suns

4-6

24%

at

Home

Rockets

8-3

76%

The pick
HOU · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
107–116
Fair odds
-312

Your pick

Toyota Center (Houston) · Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rockets at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Rockets rate higher (1604 to 1491 Elo), the Rockets have home court and lineup changes favor the Rockets.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Suns

Now 33%

37%

with a win

32%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

Rockets

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rockets 76%

Strong
PHX 24%HOU 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU -6.5
HOU 73%
Fair odds
HOU -312
PHX +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHX 106.9 – 115.5 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHXHOUWhy
Team rating14911604Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−10+16PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 · HOU: Missing Steven Adams −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsHOU +175 EloHOU 73.3%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 76.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 75.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets compared, with each team's league rank
PHXStatHOU
16th of 30112.8Points scored115.513th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed106.45th of 30
22nd of 30−5.3Margin+9.15th of 30
16th of 30111.9Offense rating116.66th of 30
27th of 30117.2Defense rating107.47th of 30
23rd of 30100.5Pace99.026th of 30
27th of 300–3Road vs home5–14th of 30
1st of 301559Opponent Elo15442nd of 30
17th of 301491Elo rating16048th of 30
20th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted0.017th of 30
17th of 30−0.7Defense, adjusted+4.66th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.4Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Rockets

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jabari Smith Jr.3518.6Available
Alperen Sengun3325.7Available
Kevin Durant3325.9Available
Amen Thompson3222.5Available
Fred VanVleet2919.7Available
Tari Eason2219.1Available
Marcus Smart1916.1Available
Reed Sheppard1918.7Available
Bogdan Bogdanovic817.0Available
Oscar Tshiebwe520.0Available
Steven Adams—20.9Out−1
Clint Capela—20.5Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SunsRockets
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Rockets

2 listed

  • Clint Capela C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka stated Monday that Capela (ankle) could be cleared to return either Nov. 15 in Washington or Nov. 16 in Miami, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

  • Steven Adams C

    Out

    Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could return as soon as Sunday's game at Washington, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHXHOU
Against the spread2–78–2
Last 102–78–2
Favorite2–17–2
Underdog0–61–0
Overs–unders6–36–4
Overs–unders, last 106–36–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHX 3–9 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.