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Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Bulls

1-8

33%

at

Home

Hornets

4-7

67%

The pick
CHA · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–117
Fair odds
-205

Your pick

Spectrum Center

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hornets at 67%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Hornets rate higher (1486 to 1371 Elo), the Hornets have home court and lineup changes favor the Bulls.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Hornets

Now 33%

34%

with a win

30%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Hornets 67%

Solid
CHI 33%CHA 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CHA 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHA -5
CHA 69%
Fair odds
CHA -205
CHI +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CHI 111.2 – 116.7 CHA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHICHAWhy
Team rating13711486Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−37−56CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsCHA +143 EloCHA 69.5%
Market-implied ratingsCHA 67.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHA 67.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets compared, with each team's league rank
CHIStatCHA
18th of 30112.7Points scored98.830th of 30
30th of 30129.3Points allowed110.410th of 30
30th of 30−16.7Margin−11.527th of 30
26th of 30105.4Offense rating101.230th of 30
30th of 30121.0Defense rating113.120th of 30
1st of 30107.0Pace97.330th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home3–420th of 30
3rd of 301538Opponent Elo147622nd of 30
25th of 301371Elo rating148618th of 30
11th of 30+0.9Offense, adjusted−4.830th of 30
30th of 30−7.5Defense, adjusted+2.38th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Hornets

−56 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Naz Reid3118.8Available
Grayson Allen2718.2Available
Sion James2712.7Available
Ryan Kalkbrenner2319.8Available
Royce O'Neale2213.4Available
Coby White1820.1Available
Moussa Diabate1819.2Day-To-Day−5
Brandon Miller1719.4Day-To-Day−5
Tidjane Salaun1612.3Available
Christian Anderson1315.6Available
Hannes Steinbach1116.1Available
Liam McNeeley1015.7Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BullsHornets
12501350145015501650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Hornets

5 listed

  • Brandon Miller F

    Day-To-Day

    Miller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.

  • Moussa Diabate F

    Day-To-Day

    Diabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.

  • Grant Williams F

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Kon Knueppel G

    Out

    Knueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.

  • Dennis Schroder G

    Out

    Schroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHICHA
Against the spread4–54–7
Last 104–53–7
Favorite0–11–2
Underdog4–43–5
Overs–unders6–34–7
Overs–unders, last 106–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHI 8–4 CHA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.