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Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Kings

1-10

10%

at

Home

Lakers

10-2

90%

The pick
LAL · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
107–123
Fair odds
-879

Your pick

crypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lakers at 90%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1352 Elo) and the Lakers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Kings

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Lakers

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

98%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Lakers 90%

Strong
SAC 10%LAL 90%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAL 90%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAL -11.5
LAL 86%
Fair odds
LAL -879
SAC +879 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
SAC 106.9 – 123.4 LAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSACLALWhy
Team rating13521625Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+18+27SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsLAL +319 EloLAL 86.3%
Market-implied ratingsLAL 90.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAL 89.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers compared, with each team's league rank
SACStatLAL
24th of 30108.3Points scored122.11st of 30
27th of 30121.0Points allowed114.417th of 30
28th of 30−12.7Margin+7.78th of 30
24th of 30106.0Offense rating119.61st of 30
28th of 30118.4Defense rating112.117th of 30
6th of 30102.2Pace102.27th of 30
26th of 281–9Last 108–23rd of 28
22nd of 301–4Road vs home5–14th of 30
12th of 301517Opponent Elo149220th of 30
27th of 301352Elo rating16256th of 30
27th of 30−2.7Offense, adjusted+3.11st of 30
28th of 30−4.0Defense, adjusted+0.712th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Kings

+18 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Acuff Jr.3617.3Available
De'Andre Hunter3216.6Available
Domantas Sabonis3123.4Available
Zach LaVine3017.6Available
Keegan Murray2514.6Available
Dylan Cardwell2116.7Available
Leaky Black1912.9Available
Emanuel Sharp1815.4Available
Malik Monk1517.4Available
Daeqwon Plowden712.9Available
Maxime Raynaud—15.8Out
Precious Achiuwa—15.7Out

Lakers

+27 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Luka Doncic3434.0Available
Austin Reaves3323.0Available
Walker Kessler2819.7Available
Jake LaRavia2414.9Available
Matisse Thybulle2215.0Available
Sandro Mamukelashvili2221.8Available
Ziaire Williams2113.5Available
Collin Sexton1919.7Available
Quentin Grimes1415.7Day-To-Day
Jarred Vanderbilt615.1Available
Adou Thiero416.0Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsLakers
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Kings

3 listed

  • Precious Achiuwa F

    Out

    Achiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.

  • Maxime Raynaud C

    Out

    Raynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.

  • Ben Simmons G

    Out

    Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.

Lakers

1 listed

  • Quentin Grimes G

    Day-To-Day

    Grimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSACLAL
Against the spread4–56–3
Last 104–56–3
Favorite—5–3
Underdog4–51–0
Overs–unders4–55–4
Overs–unders, last 104–55–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SAC 5–8 LAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.