Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Wilber DotelPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores Jr. homered to center (422 feet), Gonzales scored and O'Hearn scored.7–8
- 8O'Hearn singled to left, Cruz scored, Gonzales to third.4–8
- 8Gonzales singled to right, Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.3–8
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (387 feet).2–8
- 6Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to left, Valencia scored on fielding error by shortstop Griffin, Greene safe at third on error.2–7
- 3Torkelson struck out, Greene scored and Dingler scored, Torkelson to first on passed ball by Flores Jr., Callahan to third.2–6
- 3Dingler singled to left, McGonigle scored and Valencia scored, Greene to second.2–4
- 2Torkelson tripled to right, Valencia scored and Callahan scored.2–2
- 2Horwitz doubled to right, O'Hearn scored.2–0
- 2O'Hearn singled to right, Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML PIT +100 / DET -121
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DET: Elo 53.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 40–3816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–87 | 77–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–55 | 35–52 |
| Underdog | 43–32 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 80–72–7 | 69–82–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–7 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.