Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
- The pick
- VGK · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -119
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Golden Knights at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Golden Knights have home ice and the Golden Knights are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Canadiens
Now 73%
75%
with a win
70%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Golden Knights
Now 95%
96%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | MTL: Starter not announced · VGK: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | VGK +9 Elo | VGK 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.5%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 32 |
| 8th of 321535 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Canadiens
5 listedIvan Demidov RW
Injured ReserveDemidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports.
Mike Matheson D
OutMatheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Sam Montembeault G
Injured ReserveMontembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Bryce Pickford D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Lucas Condotta LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Golden Knights
2 listedNoah Hanifin D
Outout
Parker Wotherspoon D
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.