New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
- The pick
- NYR · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -115
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rangers at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Rangers rate higher (1491 to 1403 Elo) and the Blackhawks have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Rangers
Now 39%
43%
with a win
34%
with a loss
This game is worth 9 points of playoff chance to them.
Blackhawks
Now <1%
1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 927 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -115
- CHI +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYR 3.2 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | NYR: Starter not announced · CHI: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | NYR +53 Elo | NYR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −2.132nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 42.8%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 87.2%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15231st of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 140331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Rangers
6 listedAlberts Smits D
Injured Reserveir
Sean Durzi D
Injured ReserveDurzi (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve Thursday, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post.
Igor Shesterkin G
Injured ReserveShesterkin will require surgery and a lengthy rehab process to address his season-ending right knee injury, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports Sunday.
Joe Veleno C
Injured ReserveVeleno (lower body) was placed on long-term injured reserve Saturday, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports.
Aidan Thompson C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Adam Sykora LW
Injured Reserveir
Blackhawks
2 listedPatrick Kane RW
Injured ReserveKane (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Bowen Byram D
Injured ReserveByram (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.