Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Penguins at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Penguins have home ice and the Penguins rate higher (1488 to 1456 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Flames
Now 17%
20%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Penguins
Now 18%
21%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Penguins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Fair odds
- PIT -155
- CGY +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CGY 2.9 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CGY: Starter not announced · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PIT +67 Elo | PIT 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.9%12th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 87.6%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 32 |
| 29th of 321456 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Flames
4 listedKevin Bahl D
Injured ReserveBahl will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon and won't play again in the 2026-27 season, the Flames announced Sunday.
Jonathan Huberdeau LW
Injured ReserveHuberdeau (hip) took the ice in a regular jersey Friday, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.
Connor Zary C
Outout
Samuel Honzek LW
Injured Reserveir
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.