St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Penguins at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Penguins have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Blues
Now 41%
45%
with a win
37%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Penguins
Now 18%
20%
with a win
16%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- STL 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | STL: Starter not announced · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.9%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 87.6%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 8th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Blues
3 listedTorey Krug D
Injured ReserveKrug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube C
Injured Reserveir
Tyler Tucker D
Injured ReserveTucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednesday.
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.