Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Oilers at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Oilers rate higher (1537 to 1474 Elo) and the Flyers have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Oilers
Now 96%
97%
with a win
95%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Flyers
Now 7%
9%
with a win
6%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Fair odds
- EDM -117
- PHI +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- EDM 3.2 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −10 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +41 Elo | EDM 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.2 | Margin | −1.030th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 45.3%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 1st of 327–1 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321476 | Opponent Elo | 15136th of 32 |
| 7th of 321537 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Oilers
5 listedIsaac Howard LW
Injured Reserveir
Alec Regula D
Injured ReserveRegula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie C
Injured ReserveSavoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen G
Injured ReserveAndersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.
Mattias Janmark C
Injured ReserveJanmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.
Flyers
2 listedRasmus Ristolainen D
Injured ReserveRistolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Nikita Grebenkin RW
Injured ReserveGrebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–6 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.