New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Jets at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Dolphins are expected to start Kyle McCord instead of Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins rate higher (1372 to 1305 Elo) and the Dolphins have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jets
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Dolphins
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -1.5
- NYJ 55%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -133
- MIA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYJ 23.1 – 21.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1305 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +33 | −103 | NYJ: Geno Smith · MIA: Kyle McCord, usually Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +33 Elo | NYJ 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 15.831st of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 25.023rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−4.6 | Margin | −9.331st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 5.0422nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5623rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15278th of 32 |
| 31st of 321305 | Elo rating | 137228th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−2.4 | Offense, adjusted | −2.029th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−2.6 | Defense, adjusted | −1.022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jets
25 listedIsaiah Williams WR
ActiveWilliams did not draw a target in Sunday's Week 9 loss to Kansas City. However, he rushed once for four yards, returned one punt for 18 yards and returned two kickoffs for 55 yards.
Trevin Wallace LB
Questionablequestionable
Garrett Wilson WR
Questionablequestionable
Nahshon Wright CB
Questionablequestionable
Joseph Ossai DE
Questionablequestionable
Mason Taylor TE
ActiveTaylor recorded one catch for 11 yards on two targets in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Isaiah Davis RB
ActiveDavis didn't play any offensive snaps in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Troy Reeder LB
ActiveThe Jets signed Reeder to their active roster Monday, Amanda Vogt of the team's official site reports.
Blake Freeland OL
ActiveTim Patrick WR
ActiveKohl Levao G
ActiveWill McDonald IV DE
ActiveMcDonald put in a request for the Jets to trade him ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Ian Rapoport and Rich Cimini of ESPN report.
Dolphins
25 listedKevin Coleman Jr. WR
ActiveColeman wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for 16 yards.
Chris Bell WR
ActiveBell failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions.
Malik Willis QB
Injured Reserveir
Zach Sieler DT
Injured ReserveThe Dolphins placed Sieler (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Kyle McCord QB
ActiveMcCord will step in as the Dolphins' starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game at Indianapolis after Miami placed Malik Willis (core) on injured reserve Tuesday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Jaylen Wright RB
Questionablequestionable
Zane Gonzalez PK
ActiveGonzalez reverted to the Dolphins' practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Kaytron Allen RB
ActiveAllen caught a 46-yard pass in Sunday's 19-9 loss to the Lions. He rushed one time for minus-1 yard.
Christian Haynes G
ActiveMarcellas Dial Jr. CB
ActiveJalen Tolbert WR
ActiveJustin Joly TE
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4–1 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–6 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.