Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Texans at 72%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Ravens are expected to start Jacoby Brissett instead of Lamar Jackson and the Texans have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Ravens
Now 19%
35%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 21 points of playoff chance to them.
Texans
Now 28%
34%
with a win
13%
with a loss
This game is worth 22 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Texans 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 72%
- Fair odds
- HOU -263
- BAL +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BAL 19.6 – 26.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −114 | +10 | BAL: Jacoby Brissett, usually Lamar Jackson · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +168 Elo | HOU 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.0 | Points scored | 26.19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.2 | Points allowed | 24.018th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.2 | Margin | +2.114th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 5.758th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2715th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 148023rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321516 | Elo rating | 152415th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.0 | Offense, adjusted | +1.110th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Defense, adjusted | +1.36th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Ravens
25 listedRyan Neuzil C
ActiveThe Falcons traded Neuzil to the Ravens on Tuesday in exchange for Andrew Vorhees and a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Hamilton S
QuestionableRavens head coach Jesse Minter said Monday that Hamilton, who couldn't finish last Thursday's loss to Jacksonville due to a hip injury, "looks fairly good," Jonas Shaffer of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Nate Wiggins CB
Questionablequestionable
Jaylinn Hawkins S
Questionablequestionable
Aeneas Peebles DT
ActiveEmery Jones Jr. OT
ActiveKedon Slovis QB
ActiveElijah Sarratt WR
ActiveJacoby Brissett QB
ActiveAhead of Week 10, Ravens head coach Jesse Minter noted "I expect (Brissett) to be our starter" next Monday against the Chargers, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.
Lamar Jackson QB
Injured ReserveJackson, who is scheduled to undergo surgery on his injured right thumb, has told teammates he plans to return later this season, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Malaki Starks S
ActiveStarks finished Baltimore's Week 9 loss to the Jaguars on Thursday with four tackles (three solo) and a forced fumble.
Roquan Smith LB
ActiveSmith finished with eight tackles (two solo) in Thursday's Week 9 loss to Jacksonville.
Texans
25 listedFoster Moreau TE
ActiveMoreau didn't log any targets or touches Sunday in a 44-22 win against the Chargers.
Dare Ogunbowale RB
ActiveOgunbowale caught his only target for a three-yard gain Sunday in a 44-22 win over the Chargers.
David Montgomery RB
Questionablequestionable
Reed Blankenship S
Questionablequestionable
Cade Stover TE
ActiveNate Thomas OT
ActiveBraden Smith OT
ActiveFebechi Nwaiwu G
ActiveKa'imi Fairbairn PK
ActiveFairbairn went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all five of his PATs during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Woody Marks RB
ActiveMarks turned 18 carries into 70 yards and hauled in one of four targets for four yards during Sunday's 44-22 road win over the Chargers.
Dalton Schultz TE
ActiveSchultz caught two of four targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR
ActiveHarrison caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6–1 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6–1 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.