Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cowboys at 77%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Eagles are expected to start Joe Milton instead of Jalen Hurts, the Cowboys have home field and the Cowboys rate higher (1415 to 1387 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Eagles
Now <1%
2%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Cowboys
Now 19%
22%
with a win
9%
with a loss
This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Cowboys 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7.5
- DAL 75%
- Fair odds
- DAL -333
- PHI +333 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PHI 19.8 – 28.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −111 | +17 | PHI: Joe Milton, usually Jalen Hurts · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +192 Elo | DAL 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 76.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.4 | Points scored | 27.36th of 32 |
| 19th of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 26.225th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.1 | Margin | +1.117th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.29 | Yards per play | 5.5611th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7929th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 146030th of 32 |
| 25th of 321387 | Elo rating | 141522nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−1.2 | Offense, adjusted | +2.35th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.8 | Defense, adjusted | −2.932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Eagles
25 listedElijah Moore WR
ActiveMoore caught one of two targets for minus-3 yards during the Eagles' 19-11 loss to the Giants on Sunday.
Hollywood Brown WR
ActiveBrown recorded one catch for 16 yards on one target Sunday in a loss to the Giants.
Darius Cooper WR
ActiveCooper caught just two of eight targets for 25 yards in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.
Arnold Ebiketie LB
ActiveEbiketie will remain with the Eagles after his reported trade to the Bengals on Tuesday fell through and won't be completed, according to NFL reporter Jordan Schultz.
Elijah Mitchell RB
ActiveMitchell reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Monday.
Jake Elliott PK
ActiveElliott made his lone field-goal attempt in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.
Eli Stowers TE
ActiveStowers failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.
Dontayvion Wicks WR
Outout
DeVonta Smith WR
Outout
Jonathan Jones CB
Outout
Britain Covey WR
Outout
Jihaad Campbell LB
Outout
Cowboys
25 listedDeMarvion Overshown LB
Questionablequestionable
George Pickens WR
Questionablequestionable
Joey Porter Jr. CB
Questionablequestionable
Luke Schoonmaker TE
Questionablequestionable
KaVontae Turpin WR
Questionablequestionable
Tyler Goodson RB
OutGoodson sustained ACL and MCL sprains in his knee during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts, a source tells Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
Ryan Flournoy WR
ActiveFlournoy caught two of three targets for 53 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts.
Jake Ferguson TE
Outout
Donovan Ezeiruaku LB
QuestionableEzeiruaku (ankle) is considered day-to-day, Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
P.J. Locke S
Outout
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE
ActiveSpann-Ford caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win versus the Colts.
Ajani Cornelius OT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 3–5–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 3–5–1 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–3 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.