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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast

Fox

Away

Buccaneers

3-6

36%

at

Home

Lions

6-2

64%

The pick
DET · Solid
Line
DET -3.5
Projected
22–26
Fair odds
-176

Your pick

Ford Field · Fox

The short version

  • The betting line has the Lions favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Lions 64%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 64%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Lions rate higher (1598 to 1511 Elo), the Lions have home field and quarterback changes favor the Buccaneers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Buccaneers

Now 37%

49%

with a win

31%

with a loss

This game is worth 18 points of playoff chance to them.

Lions

Now 77%

83%

with a win

65%

with a loss

This game is worth 18 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Lions 64%

Solid
TB 36%DET 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.

Market
DET -3.5
ML TB +164 / DET -198
Pre-line forecast
DET 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DET -4
DET 64%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
DET: Elo 64.4%, market 63.7%
Fair odds
DET -176
TB +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
TB 22.0 – 25.5 DET
Posted spread, posted total 47.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBDETWhy
Team rating15111598Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+21—TB: Baker Mayfield · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsDET +103 EloDET 64.4%
Market-implied ratingsDET 65.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDET 64.7%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDET 63.7%93% market, 8% Elo

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatDET
18th of 3222.4Points scored27.85th of 32
7th of 3219.8Points allowed23.617th of 32
13th of 32+2.7Margin+4.19th of 32
25th of 324.91Yards per play5.817th of 32
8th of 325.02Yards allowed per play5.4221st of 32
14th of 322–2Road vs home4–01st of 32
9th of 321522Opponent Elo147426th of 32
17th of 321511Elo rating15989th of 32
16th of 32+0.3Offense, adjusted+3.82nd of 32
12th of 32+0.4Defense, adjusted−0.619th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BuccaneersLions
1350145015501650league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Buccaneers

25 listed

  • Ted Hurst III WR

    Active

    Hurst failed to haul in his lone target during the Buccaneers' 27-24 loss to the Bears on Sunday.

  • Tez Johnson WR

    Active

    Johnson caught two passes for 76 yards on five targets in Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Bears.

  • Sean Tucker RB

    Active

    Tucker didn't log any offensive snaps in a loss to the Bears on Sunday. He returned four kickoffs for 92 yards.

  • Chase McLaughlin PK

    Active

    McLaughlin converted all three of his field-goal attempts and both of his extra-point tries during Tampa Bay's loss to the Bears on Sunday.

  • Cade Otton TE

    Active

    Otton caught four of eight targets for 25 yards in Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Bears.

  • Yaya Diaby LB

    Out

    out

  • Ayden Garnes CB

    Active

  • Trevor Keegan G

    Active

  • Billy Schrauth G

    Active

  • DeMonte Capehart DT

    Active

  • Bucky Irving RB

    Active

    Head coach Todd Bowles said Monday that the Buccaneers "will try and lessen the load" on Irving following their Week 10 bye, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

  • Jalen McMillan WR

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Todd Bowles suggested Monday that McMillan (knee) isn't likely to immediately return to action following the Buccaneers' Week 10 bye, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

Lions

25 listed

  • Isaac TeSlaa WR

    Active

    TeSlaa registered one catch for nine yards on two targets in Sunday's 19-9 win over Miami.

  • Sione Vaki RB

    Active

    Vaki turned three carries into 14 yards and hauled in both of his targets for seven yards during the Lions'

  • Kerby Joseph S

    Out

    Lions head coach Dan Campbell ruled Joseph (knee) out for Sunday's game against the Patriots, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.

  • Sam LaPorta TE

    Active

    The Lions have received trade calls on LaPorta leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the team prefers to keep him with the hope of signing the tight end to a long-term deal, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.

  • DJ Wonnum LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • D.J. Reed CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Jacob Saylors RB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Cade Mays C

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Andre Cisco S

    Active

    The Lions acquired Cisco from the Jets on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

  • Ahmed Hassanein DE

    Active

  • Mekhi Wingo DT

    Active

  • Jake Bates PK

    Active

    Bates went 4-for-4 on field-goal attempts and made his only extra-point try during Sunday's 19-9 win over the Dolphins.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBDET
Against the spread4–53–3–2
Last 104–53–3–2
Favorite1–23–2–2
Underdog3–30–1
Overs–unders5–45–3
Overs–unders, last 105–45–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.