San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 85%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1360 Elo), the Spurs are on a back-to-back and the Bucks have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Spurs
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Bucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Spurs 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -9
- SA 81%
- Fair odds
- SA -552
- MIL +552 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SA 118.9 – 105.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | −19 | SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 · MIL: Missing Tyler Herro (40% to sit) −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +252 Elo | SA 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 84.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −14.929th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 105.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 289–1 | Last 10 | 1–926th of 28 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15325th of 30 |
| 1st of 301670 | Elo rating | 136026th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Offense, adjusted | −3.828th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −3.725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.2 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Bucks
−19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | 27 | 13.9 | Available |
| Myles Turner | 27 | 16.7 | Available |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26 | 18.9 | Available |
| Brayden Burries | 25 | 16.1 | Available |
| Ryan Rollins | 22 | 18.0 | Available |
| Tyler Herro | 18 | 21.5 | Day-To-Day−13 |
| AJ Green | 18 | 12.2 | Available |
| Nate Ament | 17 | 16.0 | Available |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 16 | 15.5 | Available |
| Kel'el Ware | 16 | 20.0 | Available |
| Ousmane Dieng | 12 | 12.5 | Available |
| Jericho Sims | 9 | 12.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Spurs
3 listedDevin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Tobias Harris F
OutHarris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Bucks
1 listedTyler Herro G
Day-To-DayHerro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.