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Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast

DAZN (YES)

Away

Nets

2-8

31%

at

Home

Hornets

4-7

69%

The pick
CHA · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
105–111
Fair odds
-223

Your pick

Spectrum Center · DAZN (YES)

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hornets at 69%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Hornets rate higher (1486 to 1335 Elo), lineup changes favor the Nets and the Nets are on a back-to-back.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Hornets

Now 33%

34%

with a win

30%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Hornets 69%

Solid
BKN 31%CHA 69%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CHA 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHA -4.5
CHA 68%
Fair odds
CHA -223
BKN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
BKN 105.1 – 111.2 CHA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBKNCHAWhy
Team rating13351486Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—BKN on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+38−56BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsCHA +132 EloCHA 68.1%
Market-implied ratingsCHA 69.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHA 69.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets compared, with each team's league rank
BKNStatCHA
27th of 30106.7Points scored98.830th of 30
21st of 30115.7Points allowed110.410th of 30
25th of 30−9.0Margin−11.527th of 30
28th of 30104.1Offense rating101.230th of 30
19th of 30112.9Defense rating113.120th of 30
14th of 30101.5Pace97.330th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home3–420th of 30
10th of 301519Opponent Elo147622nd of 30
28th of 301335Elo rating148618th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Offense, adjusted−4.830th of 30
20th of 30−1.4Defense, adjusted+2.38th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Hornets

−56 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Naz Reid3118.8Available
Grayson Allen2718.2Available
Sion James2712.7Available
Ryan Kalkbrenner2319.8Available
Royce O'Neale2213.4Available
Coby White1820.1Available
Moussa Diabate1819.2Day-To-Day−5
Brandon Miller1719.4Day-To-Day−5
Tidjane Salaun1612.3Available
Christian Anderson1315.6Available
Hannes Steinbach1116.1Available
Liam McNeeley1015.7Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NetsHornets
12501350145015501650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Hornets

5 listed

  • Brandon Miller F

    Day-To-Day

    Miller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.

  • Moussa Diabate F

    Day-To-Day

    Diabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.

  • Grant Williams F

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Kon Knueppel G

    Out

    Knueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.

  • Dennis Schroder G

    Out

    Schroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBKNCHA
Against the spread4–34–7
Last 104–33–7
Favorite0–11–2
Underdog4–23–5
Overs–unders3–44–7
Overs–unders, last 103–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BKN 6–6 CHA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.