Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
- The pick
- PHI · Lean
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 111–113
- Fair odds
- -137
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the 76ers have home court and lineup changes favor the 76ers.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Trail Blazers
Now 67%
69%
with a win
65%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
76ers
Now 90%
91%
with a win
89%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -137
- POR +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- POR 111.1 – 113.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +63 | POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 110.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 109.28th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 108.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 107.58th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15218th of 30 |
| 12th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151115th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.6 | Offense, adjusted | −1.022nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Defense, adjusted | +1.49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Trail Blazers
+44 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 23.1 | Available |
| Toumani Camara | 28 | 15.0 | Available |
| Damian Lillard | 27 | 25.7 | Available |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 20.6 | Available |
| Donovan Clingan | 25 | 21.8 | Available |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 14.7 | Available |
| Sidy Cissoko | 22 | 12.9 | Available |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 22.8 | Available |
| Chris Youngblood | 13 | 17.1 | Available |
| Yang Hansen | 8 | 13.1 | Available |
| Branden Carlson | 7 | 18.8 | Available |
| Micah Potter | 6 | 15.7 | Available |
76ers
+63 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 34 | 24.4 | Available |
| VJ Edgecombe | 32 | 17.2 | Available |
| Jaylen Brown | 32 | 25.5 | Available |
| LeBron James | 31 | 25.1 | Available |
| Joel Embiid | 29 | 29.6 | Available |
| Dean Wade | 21 | 15.3 | Available |
| Anfernee Simons | 18 | 17.5 | Available |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 18 | 13.8 | Available |
| Jabari Walker | 12 | 15.6 | Available |
| Tacko Fall | 5 | 17.8 | Available |
| Adem Bona | — | 14.8 | Out |
| Dominick Barlow | — | 15.9 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Trail Blazers
3 listedJa Morant G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.
Vit Krejci G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Shaedon Sharpe G
OutSharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
76ers
3 listedAdem Bona C
OutBona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.
Dominick Barlow F
OutHead coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.
Ariel Hukporti C
OutHukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.