Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lakers at 81%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1486 Elo), lineup changes favor the Lakers and the Lakers have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hornets
Now 33%
37%
with a win
32%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Lakers
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
98%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lakers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9.5
- LAL 82%
- Fair odds
- LAL -423
- CHA +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHA 105.5 – 116.5 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +27 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +260 Elo | LAL 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3098.8 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 114.417th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.5 | Margin | +7.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 283–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 28 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 16256th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Offense, adjusted | +3.11st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.3 | Defense, adjusted | +0.712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Hornets
−56 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 31 | 18.8 | Available |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 18.2 | Available |
| Sion James | 27 | 12.7 | Available |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 23 | 19.8 | Available |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 13.4 | Available |
| Coby White | 18 | 20.1 | Available |
| Moussa Diabate | 18 | 19.2 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Brandon Miller | 17 | 19.4 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12.3 | Available |
| Christian Anderson | 13 | 15.6 | Available |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 16.1 | Available |
| Liam McNeeley | 10 | 15.7 | Available |
Lakers
+27 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 34 | 34.0 | Available |
| Austin Reaves | 33 | 23.0 | Available |
| Walker Kessler | 28 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jake LaRavia | 24 | 14.9 | Available |
| Matisse Thybulle | 22 | 15.0 | Available |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 22 | 21.8 | Available |
| Ziaire Williams | 21 | 13.5 | Available |
| Collin Sexton | 19 | 19.7 | Available |
| Quentin Grimes | 14 | 15.7 | Day-To-Day |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 6 | 15.1 | Available |
| Adou Thiero | 4 | 16.0 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hornets
5 listedBrandon Miller F
Day-To-DayMiller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Moussa Diabate F
Day-To-DayDiabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Grant Williams F
OutWilliams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.
Kon Knueppel G
OutKnueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Dennis Schroder G
OutSchroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Lakers
1 listedQuentin Grimes G
Day-To-DayGrimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–4 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.