San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 89%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1309 Elo), the Jazz have home court and lineup changes favor the Spurs.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Spurs
Now >99%
100%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Jazz
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Spurs 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -12.5
- SA 89%
- Fair odds
- SA -842
- UTAH +842 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SA 121.5 – 105.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1309 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −31 | SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +356 Elo | SA 88.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 89.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 89.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 106.528th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 117.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −11.226th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 102.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 1st of 289–1 | Last 10 | 1–926th of 28 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15266th of 30 |
| 1st of 301670 | Elo rating | 130930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Offense, adjusted | −2.225th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | −4.027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.2 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Jazz
−31 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 34 | 13.1 | Available |
| Darryn Peterson | 32 | 16.5 | Available |
| Jaxson Hayes | 25 | 18.3 | Available |
| Josh Green | 24 | 12.4 | Available |
| Josh Okogie | 22 | 13.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Collier | 19 | 13.7 | Available |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 17 | 13.9 | Available |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 17 | 15.1 | Available |
| Mo Bamba | 15 | 15.9 | Available |
| Kyle Filipowski | 12 | 16.7 | Available |
| Tony Bradley | 9 | 16.2 | Available |
| Harrison Ingram | 6 | 18.3 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Spurs
3 listedDevin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Tobias Harris F
OutHarris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Jazz
4 listedLauri Markkanen F
OutMarkkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.
Keyonte George G
OutGeorge (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.
Jusuf Nurkic C
OutNurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.
Jaren Jackson Jr. F
OutJackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 1–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 8–4 UTAH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Nov 2UTAH 97 @ SA 119Picked SA 89%Hit
- Oct 28SA 117 @ UTAH 111Picked SA 83%Hit
- Jan 22SA 126 @ UTAH 109Picked SA 82%Hit
- Jan 19UTAH 110 @ SA 123Picked SA 87%Hit
- Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114Picked SA 85%Miss
- Nov 26SA 128 @ UTAH 115Picked SA 53%Hit
- Nov 21UTAH 118 @ SA 126Picked SA 57%Hit
- Nov 9UTAH 111 @ SA 110Picked SA 69%Miss