Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Clippers at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Clippers have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hornets
Now 33%
35%
with a win
31%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Clippers
Now 14%
15%
with a win
12%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Fair odds
- LAC -117
- CHA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHA 109.6 – 110.8 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | −70 | CHA: Missing Kon Knueppel −26, Brandon Miller (40% to sit) −5, Moussa Diabate (40% to sit) −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +28 Elo | LAC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3098.8 | Points scored | 112.219th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.5 | Margin | −5.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 109.120th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 101.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 15344th of 30 |
| 18th of 301486 | Elo rating | 149116th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Offense, adjusted | −0.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.3 | Defense, adjusted | −1.119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Hornets
−56 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | 31 | 18.8 | Available |
| Grayson Allen | 27 | 18.2 | Available |
| Sion James | 27 | 12.7 | Available |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 23 | 19.8 | Available |
| Royce O'Neale | 22 | 13.4 | Available |
| Coby White | 18 | 20.1 | Available |
| Moussa Diabate | 18 | 19.2 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Brandon Miller | 17 | 19.4 | Day-To-Day−5 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16 | 12.3 | Available |
| Christian Anderson | 13 | 15.6 | Available |
| Hannes Steinbach | 11 | 16.1 | Available |
| Liam McNeeley | 10 | 15.7 | Available |
Clippers
−70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 30 | 22.1 | Available |
| Rui Hachimura | 27 | 15.9 | Available |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 26 | 16.9 | Available |
| Kris Dunn | 25 | 15.3 | Available |
| Kobe Sanders | 23 | 15.2 | Available |
| Brook Lopez | 22 | 17.5 | Available |
| Max Strus | 21 | 16.3 | Available |
| Keaton Wagler | 19 | 17.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Jackson | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Gradey Dick | 14 | 14.7 | Available |
| Baba Miller | 9 | 18.7 | Available |
| Brandon Ingram | — | 20.4 | Out−16 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hornets
5 listedBrandon Miller F
Day-To-DayMiller (groin) is listed as out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Moussa Diabate F
Day-To-DayDiabate (quadriceps) has been downgraded to out for Monday's game against Cleveland.
Grant Williams F
OutWilliams (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Cavaliers.
Kon Knueppel G
OutKnueppel (hamstring) was diagnosed with a left hamstring strain Sunday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Dennis Schroder G
OutSchroder has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.
Clippers
5 listedCam Christie G
OutChristie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser C
OutNiederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Brandon Ingram F
OutIngram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Bradley Beal G
OutBeal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Jordan Miller G
OutMiller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–6 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.