New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mauricio homered to right (384 feet), Ewing scored.7–1
- 8Baty reached on infield single to shortstop, Benge scored on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez.5–1
- 7Mauricio homered to right (411 feet).4–1
- 7Ewing homered to right center (396 feet), Benge scored and Alvarez scored.3–1
- 3Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Nuñez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML NYM -109 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.8%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- NYM +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Connelly Early: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +20 Elo | WSH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 38–4123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–83 | 89–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 45–34 | 68–49 |
| Overs–unders | 76–71–13 | 84–67–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 31–19 WSH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 50.