Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Flyers at 64%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Flyers rate higher (1474 to 1390 Elo) and the Flyers have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Canucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Flyers
Now 7%
8%
with a win
6%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Flyers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Fair odds
- PHI -180
- VAN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- VAN 2.7 – 3.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | VAN: Starter not announced · PHI: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PHI +119 Elo | PHI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.5 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.7 | Margin | −1.030th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3241.7% | Shot share | 45.3%30th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%17th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–9 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
| 7th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15136th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321390 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Canucks
4 listedTom Willander D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Filip Chytil C
Injured ReserveChytil (shoulder) will not be in action versus the Flyers on Monday, Canucks play-by-play announcer Brendan Batchelor reports.
Mackenzie MacEachern LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Thatcher Demko G
Injured ReserveCo-president of hockey operations Henrik Sedin said Monday that he hopes Demko (hip) will be ready to return before Christmas, Kevin Woodley of NHL.com reports.
Flyers
2 listedRasmus Ristolainen D
Injured ReserveRistolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Nikita Grebenkin RW
Injured ReserveGrebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–12 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–12 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–6 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.