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Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast

Fox

Away

Falcons

3-6

20%

at

Home

Vikings

6-2

80%

The pick
MIN · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
15–25
Fair odds
-389

Your pick

U.S. Bank Stadium · Fox

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Vikings at 80%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Vikings rate higher (1611 to 1443 Elo), the Vikings are expected to start Kirk Cousins instead of Kyler Murray and the Vikings have home field.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Falcons

Now 20%

32%

with a win

17%

with a loss

This game is worth 15 points of playoff chance to them.

Vikings

Now 86%

89%

with a win

74%

with a loss

This game is worth 15 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Vikings 80%

Strong
ATL 20%MIN 80%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 80%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -11
MIN 83%
Fair odds
MIN -389
ATL +389 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ATL 15.0 – 24.7 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLMINWhy
Team rating14431611Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks−3+63ATL: Michael Penix Jr. · MIN: Kirk Cousins, usually Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsMIN +271 EloMIN 82.6%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 67.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 79.5%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatMIN
23rd of 3220.9Points scored18.327th of 32
20th of 3224.8Points allowed14.51st of 32
23rd of 32−3.9Margin+3.810th of 32
14th of 325.48Yards per play4.6530th of 32
19th of 325.38Yards allowed per play4.602nd of 32
14th of 322–2Road vs home3–19th of 32
3rd of 321543Opponent Elo15307th of 32
19th of 321443Elo rating16117th of 32
22nd of 32−1.0Offense, adjusted−1.827th of 32
21st of 32−1.0Defense, adjusted+3.41st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

FalconsVikings
1350145015501650league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Falcons

25 listed

  • Khalil Herbert RB

    Active

    Herbert carried the ball once for seven yards and caught two of his three targets for two yards during Atlanta's loss to the Bengals on Sunday.

  • Olamide Zaccheaus WR

    Active

    Zaccheaus caught one of three targets for five yards during the Falcons' 34-17 loss to the Bengals on Sunday in Madrid. He also returned one kickoff for 28 yards and returned two punts for minus-three yards.

  • Jahan Dotson WR

    Active

    Dotson caught two passes for 16 yards on two targets in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.

  • Andrew Vorhees G

    Active

    The Ravens traded Vorhees and a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick to the Falcons on Tuesday in exchange for Ryan Neuzil, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.

  • Zachariah Branch WR

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Jack Strand QB

    Active

  • Andy Dalton QB

    Active

  • Robert Longerbeam CB

    Active

  • Billy Bowman Jr. CB

    Active

  • Kyle Pitts Sr. TE

    Active

    Pitts caught three of five targets for 23 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.

  • Michael Penix Jr. QB

    Active

    Penix completed 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown with an interception in Sunday's 34-17 loss to Cincinnati. He added 50 rushing yards on three carries.

  • Drake London WR

    Active

    London caught all five of his targets for 68 yards in Sunday's 34-17 loss to the Bengals.

Vikings

25 listed

  • DeeJay Dallas RB

    Active

    Dallas caught his only target for a two-yard gain in Monday's Week 9 loss to the Bills.

  • Myles Price WR

    Active

    Price caught one of his four targets for six yards in a Week 9 loss to Buffalo on Monday Night Football. He also gained 12 yards on one punt return and brought back four kickoffs for 124 yards.

  • Will Reichard PK

    Active

    Reichard made both of his field-goal attempts during the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday.

  • Kyler Murray QB

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Max Brosmer QB

    Active

    Brosmer completed six of seven attempts for 58 yards in Monday night's 23-6 loss to the Bills.

  • Odell Beckham Jr. WR

    Active

    The Vikings released Beckham on Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.

  • Jauan Jennings WR

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Caleb Banks DT

    Active

  • Charles Demmings CB

    Active

  • Jakobe Thomas S

    Active

  • Jordan Addison WR

    Active

    Addison secured two of three targets for 28 yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.

  • Aaron Jones Sr. RB

    Active

    Jones rushed five times for 16 yards and brought in his only target for five yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonATLMIN
Against the spread3–64–4
Last 103–64–4
Favorite0–12–2
Underdog3–52–2
Overs–unders4–51–7
Overs–unders, last 104–51–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ATL 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.