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Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

Away

Hawks

7-5

34%

at

Home

Knicks

6-4

66%

The pick
NY · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
109–114
Fair odds
-198

Your pick

Madison Square Garden

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 66%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1522 Elo) and the Knicks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Hawks

Now 93%

94%

with a win

92%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Knicks

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Knicks 66%

Solid
ATL 34%NY 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -6
NY 73%
Fair odds
NY -198
ATL +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ATL 109.1 – 114.2 NY
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorATLNYWhy
Team rating15221658Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−11−8ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsNY +175 EloNY 73.2%
Market-implied ratingsNY 65.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 66.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
ATLStatNY
5th of 30118.3Points scored110.622nd of 30
22nd of 30116.2Points allowed102.31st of 30
14th of 30+2.1Margin+8.36th of 30
14th of 30112.6Offense rating113.410th of 30
14th of 30110.7Defense rating104.93rd of 30
2nd of 30104.9Pace97.828th of 30
7th of 304–2Road vs home4–28th of 30
27th of 301466Opponent Elo147524th of 30
13th of 301522Elo rating16582nd of 30
4th of 30+2.3Offense, adjusted−0.421st of 30
21st of 30−1.6Defense, adjusted+6.91st of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Hawks

−11 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Johnson3123.3Available
Nickeil Alexander-Walker2920.3Available
Dyson Daniels2820.5Available
Onyeka Okongwu2820.7Available
Aaron Wiggins2219.3Available
CJ McCollum2220.1Available
Luguentz Dort2214.2Available
Kingston Flemings2117.1Available
Jalen Wilson1211.6Available
Jock Landale918.8Available
Zuby Ejiofor618.4Available
RayJ Dennis516.0Available

Knicks

−8 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Brunson3327.4Available
OG Anunoby3221.7Available
Karl-Anthony Towns3128.0Available
Landry Shamet2716.3Available
Mikal Bridges2418.5Available
Miles McBride1917.9Available
Andre Drummond1417.7Available
Tyler Kolek1219.2Available
Jordan Clarkson1218.0Available
Mohamed Diawara1116.4Available
Jose Alvarado816.6Available
Dalton Knecht614.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HawksKnicks
14001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Hawks

4 listed

  • Asa Newell F

    Out

    Newell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Keshon Gilbert G

    Out

    Gilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.

  • Mouhamed Gueye F

    Out

    Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.

  • Henri Veesaar C

    Out

    Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.

Knicks

1 listed

  • Josh Hart G

    Out

    Hart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonATLNY
Against the spread3–53–5
Last 103–53–5
Favorite2–33–4
Underdog1–20–1
Overs–unders4–42–6
Overs–unders, last 104–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ATL 6–11 NY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.