Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Cavaliers

5-6

32%

at

Home

Knicks

6-4

68%

The pick
NY · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
108–114
Fair odds
-208

Your pick

Madison Square Garden · DAZN CLE

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 68%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1548 Elo) and the Knicks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Cavaliers

Now 93%

94%

with a win

92%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Knicks

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Knicks 68%

Solid
CLE 32%NY 68%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 68%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -6
NY 72%
Fair odds
NY -208
CLE +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CLE 108.2 – 113.8 NY
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLENYWhy
Team rating15481658Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−17−8CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsNY +167 EloNY 72.4%
Market-implied ratingsNY 67.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 67.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatNY
10th of 30116.5Points scored110.622nd of 30
19th of 30115.0Points allowed102.31st of 30
15th of 30+1.5Margin+8.36th of 30
13th of 30113.3Offense rating113.410th of 30
15th of 30111.8Defense rating104.93rd of 30
10th of 30102.0Pace97.828th of 30
22nd of 301–4Road vs home4–28th of 30
13th of 301515Opponent Elo147524th of 30
10th of 301548Elo rating16582nd of 30
6th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted−0.421st of 30
16th of 30−0.5Defense, adjusted+6.91st of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Knicks

−8 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Brunson3327.4Available
OG Anunoby3221.7Available
Karl-Anthony Towns3128.0Available
Landry Shamet2716.3Available
Mikal Bridges2418.5Available
Miles McBride1917.9Available
Andre Drummond1417.7Available
Tyler Kolek1219.2Available
Jordan Clarkson1218.0Available
Mohamed Diawara1116.4Available
Jose Alvarado816.6Available
Dalton Knecht614.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersKnicks
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Knicks

1 listed

  • Josh Hart G

    Out

    Hart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLENY
Against the spread2–73–5
Last 102–73–5
Favorite1–53–4
Underdog1–20–1
Overs–unders5–42–6
Overs–unders, last 105–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 6–9 NY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.