Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lukes singled to left, Springer scored, Okamoto to third.5–6
- 7Okamoto doubled to center, Kirk scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.5–5
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Giménez scored, Kirk to second.5–3
- 3Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Stewart scored, Suárez out at second.5–2
- 3Stewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.4–2
- 3De La Cruz doubled to left, Jorge scored and Cabrera scored.3–2
- 2Suárez homered to left (380 feet).1–2
- 1Okamoto doubled to left, Kirk scored.0–2
- 1Kirk doubled to center, McAdoo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML CIN +143 / TOR -174
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- CIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 40–3817th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 27th of 301467 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–81 | 81–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 32–50 |
| Underdog | 62–51 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 83–72–4 | 80–74–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–5 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.