Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Browns at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Raiders are expected to start Fernando Mendoza instead of Kirk Cousins, the Browns rate higher (1436 to 1374 Elo) and the Browns have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Raiders
Now 3%
8%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Browns
Now 31%
35%
with a win
16%
with a loss
This game is worth 19 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Browns 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 77%
- Fair odds
- CLE -309
- LV +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LV 17.4 – 25.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −107 | +5 | LV: Fernando Mendoza, usually Kirk Cousins · CLE: Deshaun Watson (65%) or Shedeur Sanders (35%) (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +210 Elo | CLE 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 17.929th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.8 | Points allowed | 21.813th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−3.3 | Margin | −3.923rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325.35 | Yards per play | 5.0023rd of 32 |
| 31st of 326.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2212th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 147227th of 32 |
| 27th of 321374 | Elo rating | 143620th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−1.4 | Offense, adjusted | −3.332nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.7 | Defense, adjusted | 0.017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Raiders
25 listedJack Bech WR
ActiveBech caught one of two targets for nine yards Sunday in a loss to the 49ers.
Fernando Mendoza QB
ActiveMendoza will take over as the Raiders' new starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game versus the Seahawks after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Thomas Booker IV DT
Questionablequestionable
Matt Gay PK
ActiveGay converted his only field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during Las Vegas' loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell QB
ActiveBryce Cabeldue G
ActiveMalik Benson WR
ActiveDalton Johnson S
ActiveDont'e Thornton Jr. WR
ActiveJalen Nailor WR
ActiveNailor caught two of four targets for nine yards during Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Michael Mayer TE
ActiveMayer caught all three of his targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Mike Washington Jr. RB
ActiveWashington turned six carries into minus-three yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Browns
25 listedDeshaun Watson QB
Questionablequestionable
Maliek Collins DT
Questionablequestionable
Noah Igbinoghene CB
ActiveTaylen Green QB
ActiveParker Brailsford C
ActiveJustin Jefferson LB
ActiveAndre Szmyt PK
ActiveSzmyt went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made his only PAT during Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to New Orleans.
Jerry Jeudy WR
ActiveJeudy caught two of four targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
Dylan Sampson RB
ActiveSampson rushed eight times for 21 yards while catching three of six targets for 27 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss against the Saints.
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
ActiveFannin caught both his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
KC Concepcion WR
ActiveConcepcion caught four of six targets for 85 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints. He added three yards on his only carry.
Denzel Boston WR
ActiveBoston caught six of seven targets for 98 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.