Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the 49ers favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (49ers 63%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings lean the other way, to the Vikings at 52%. When the two disagree, the line has been right more often.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Vikings are expected to start Kirk Cousins instead of Kyler Murray and the 49ers rate higher (1634 to 1611 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Vikings
Now 86%
92%
with a win
80%
with a loss
This game is worth 12 points of playoff chance to them.
49ers
Now 97%
>99%
with a win
94%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
49ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SF -3.5
- ML MIN +170 / SF -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.8 pts
- SF: Elo 47.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -172
- MIN +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIN 21.5 – 25.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +63 | +24 | MIN: Kirk Cousins, usually Kyler Murray · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 29.43rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3214.5 | Points allowed | 19.56th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.8 | Margin | +9.92nd of 32 |
| 30th of 324.65 | Yards per play | 6.311st of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.783rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321611 | Elo rating | 16346th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+3.4 | Defense, adjusted | +0.215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Vikings
25 listedDeeJay Dallas RB
ActiveDallas caught his only target for a two-yard gain in Monday's Week 9 loss to the Bills.
Myles Price WR
ActivePrice caught one of his four targets for six yards in a Week 9 loss to Buffalo on Monday Night Football. He also gained 12 yards on one punt return and brought back four kickoffs for 124 yards.
Will Reichard PK
ActiveReichard made both of his field-goal attempts during the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday.
Kyler Murray QB
Doubtfuldoubtful
Max Brosmer QB
ActiveBrosmer completed six of seven attempts for 58 yards in Monday night's 23-6 loss to the Bills.
Odell Beckham Jr. WR
ActiveThe Vikings released Beckham on Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.
Jauan Jennings WR
Questionablequestionable
Caleb Banks DT
ActiveCharles Demmings CB
ActiveJakobe Thomas S
ActiveJordan Addison WR
ActiveAddison secured two of three targets for 28 yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
ActiveJones rushed five times for 16 yards and brought in his only target for five yards in the Vikings' 23-6 loss to the Bills on Monday night.
49ers
25 listedGracen Halton DT
Injured Reserveir
Brandin Cooks WR
ActiveCooks brought in both of his targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Demarcus Robinson WR
ActiveRobinson caught three passes for 22 yards on four targets in Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Mac Jones QB
ActiveThe 49ers fielded trade inquiries in Jones from the Vikings leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the quarterback is expected to remain in San Francisco, Dianna Russini of BetUS TV reports.
Mike Evans WR
Questionablequestionable
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR
Questionablequestionable
Jordan James RB
ActiveJames rushed three times for 11 yards and returned two kickoffs for 31 yards Sunday in a 38-17 victory versus Las Vegas.
Eddy Pineiro PK
ActivePineiro made his lone field-goal attempt and all five of his extra-point tries during San Francisco's win over the Raiders on Sunday.
C.J. West DT
Injured ReserveThe 49ers plan to open West's (undisclosed) practice window Wednesday, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Deommodore Lenoir CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Lenoir (foot) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Renardo Green CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Green (back) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Brandon Aiyuk WR
OutThe 49ers reinstated Aiyuk (personal) from the reserve/left squad list Monday and were granted a two-week roster exemption for the wide receiver, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.