New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7House singled to center, Wood scored, Chaparro to second.4–6
- 5Chaparro homered to left center (389 feet).4–5
- 3Young safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Bichette, Crews scored.4–4
- 3Chaparro homered to left (379 feet).4–3
- 2Nuñez doubled to right, Ford scored.4–2
- 2Lindor homered to left (409 feet).4–1
- 2Mauricio homered to center (410 feet), Torrens scored.3–1
- 1Abrams tripled to right, House scored.1–1
- 1Benge singled to left, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML NYM -112 / WSH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 38–4223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 147323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 89–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 46–34 | 68–49 |
| Overs–unders | 76–72–13 | 84–68–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 32–19 WSH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.