Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
- The pick
- WSH · Solid
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 26–22
- Fair odds
- -186
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Commanders at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Cardinals are expected to start Carson Beck instead of Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals have home field and the Commanders rate higher (1395 to 1375 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Commanders
Now 5%
6%
with a win
2%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Cardinals
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Commanders 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -4.5
- WSH 65%
- Fair odds
- WSH -186
- ARI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 26.5 – 22.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | −90 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · ARI: Carson Beck, usually Jacoby Brissett (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +110 Elo | WSH 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.5 | Points scored | 19.826th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 28.331st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−3.8 | Margin | −8.630th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 4.7128th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6324th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15601st of 32 |
| 24th of 321395 | Elo rating | 137526th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.1 | Offense, adjusted | −1.021st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−1.9 | Defense, adjusted | −2.730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Commanders
25 listedColson Yankoff TE
QuestionableYankoff (knee) did not participate in Tuesday's walkthrough practice.
Treylon Burks WR
Questionablequestionable
Chig Okonkwo TE
ActiveOkonkwo (hip) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice.
Shy Tuttle DT
ActiveLucas Patrick G
Doubtfuldoubtful
Antonio Williams WR
ActiveWilliams caught three passes for 25 yards on six targets in Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.
Drew Stevens PK
ActiveStevens made both of his field-goal attempts and his only PAT during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.
Austin Ekeler RB
ActiveEkeler rushed eight times for 16 yards and caught two of three targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.
Isaac Yiadom CB
ActiveTanoa Togiai G
ActiveFabian Moreau CB
ActiveAthan Kaliakmanis QB
Active
Cardinals
25 listedEvan Hull RB
ActiveHull failed to haul in his lone target during the Cardinals' 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Simi Fehoko WR
ActiveFehoko was unable to haul in his lone target in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Reggie Virgil WR
ActiveVirgil caught one of four targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.
Elijah Higgins TE
ActiveHiggins caught both of his targets for 11 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Devin Duvernay WR
ActiveDuvernay registered two catches for eight yards on two targets, returned three kickoffs for 64 yards and brought back two punts for 21 yards in Sunday's 17-3 loss to the Seahawks.
Michael Wilson WR
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Wilson (neck) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Gardner Minshew II QB
Injured ReserveThe Cardinals placed Minshew (elbow) on injured reserve Tuesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.
Joey Aguilar QB
ActiveThe Cardinals signed Aguilar off the Jaguars' practice squad Tuesday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Jayden Williams OT
Questionablequestionable
Bam Knight RB
Questionablequestionable
Jon Gaines II G
Questionablequestionable
Chad Ryland PK
ActiveRyland made his lone field-goal attempt during Arizona's loss versus the Seahawks on Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.