Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Broncos at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Broncos rate higher (1656 to 1573 Elo) and the Steelers have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Broncos
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
98%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Steelers
Now 86%
92%
with a win
81%
with a loss
This game is worth 11 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Broncos 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 56%
- Fair odds
- DEN -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DEN 21.8 – 19.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +10 | DEN: Bo Nix · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +44 Elo | DEN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 22.517th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 18.04th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +4.57th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 5.1920th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 4.986th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321530 | Opponent Elo | 146928th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321656 | Elo rating | 157312th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.4 | Offense, adjusted | −0.519th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.8 | Defense, adjusted | +1.27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Broncos
25 listedAdam Trautman TE
ActiveTrautman caught two of three passes for 15 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr. WR
ActiveMims caught one of two targets for zero yards, added a five-yard carry and returned three punts for 22 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Troy Franklin WR
ActiveFranklin brought in three of four targets for 31 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Daiyan Henley LB
ActiveThe Broncos acquired Henley from the Chargers on Tuesday in exchange for a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Evan Engram TE
ActiveEngram caught four of five targets for 33 yards in Sunday's 26-21 win over the Panthers.
Wil Lutz PK
ActiveLutz went 2-for-2 on both his field-goal attempts and extra-point tries during Denver's win over Carolina on Sunday.
Brandon Jones S
Outout
Talanoa Hufanga S
Outout
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR
ActiveDallen Bentley TE
ActiveSam Ehlinger QB
ActiveKris Abrams-Draine CB
Outout
Steelers
25 listedBen Skowronek WR
Questionablequestionable
Doneiko Slaughter CB
Questionablequestionable
Brandin Echols CB
Questionablequestionable
Chris Boswell PK
ActiveBoswell made two of his three field-goal attempts and all three PATs in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Will Howard QB
ActiveDrew Allar QB
ActiveEli Heidenreich RB
ActiveMichael Pittman Jr. WR
Injured ReservePittman (foot) said Monday that he resumed running last week as part of a program to return, but the wideout acknowledged that he's without a clear timeline to be activated from injured reserve, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Germie Bernard WR
ActiveBernard caught all five of his targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win against Cleveland.
Pat Freiermuth TE
ActiveFreiermuth caught both of his targets for 35 yards in Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns. He added one rushing attempt for a one-yard touchdown.
Darnell Washington TE
ActiveWashington caught three of five targets for 94 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns.
Rico Dowdle RB
ActiveDowdle rushed 15 times for 56 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 5–0 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.