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Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast

Netflix

Away

Packers

6-3

39%

at

Home

Rams

5-4

61%

The pick
LAR · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
21–25
Fair odds
-154

Your pick

SoFi Stadium · Netflix

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rams at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Rams have home field and the Rams rate higher (1601 to 1575 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Packers

Now 49%

66%

with a win

38%

with a loss

This game is worth 28 points of playoff chance to them.

Rams

Now 40%

51%

with a win

24%

with a loss

This game is worth 27 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Rams 61%

Lean
GB 39%LAR 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAR 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAR -2
LAR 58%
Fair odds
LAR -154
GB +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
GB 21.5 – 24.6 LAR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorGBLARWhy
Team rating15751601Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+12+3GB: Jordan Love · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsLAR +53 EloLAR 57.6%
Market-implied ratingsLAR 69.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAR 60.6%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

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Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams compared, with each team's league rank
GBStatLAR
12th of 3224.0Points scored23.813th of 32
11th of 3221.2Points allowed20.18th of 32
12th of 32+2.8Margin+3.711th of 32
10th of 325.59Yards per play5.669th of 32
5th of 324.88Yards allowed per play4.997th of 32
10th of 323–2Road vs home2–217th of 32
15th of 321501Opponent Elo148620th of 32
10th of 321575Elo rating16018th of 32
12th of 32+1.0Offense, adjusted+2.36th of 32
8th of 32+1.1Defense, adjusted+1.09th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PackersRams
1400145015001550160016501700league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Packers

25 listed

  • Jonnu Smith TE

    Active

    Smith didn't log a target or touch in a 45-27 win over the Patriots on Sunday.

  • Pierre Strong Jr. RB

    Active

    Strong rushed eight times for 22 yards in Sunday's 45-27 win over the Patriots. He added two catches for 11 yards on two targets.

  • Kaleb Johnson RB

    Active

    Johnson could serve as the Packers' lead option on the ground in Sunday's game against the Vikings with Josh Jacobs (finger) expected to miss multiple weeks and with the status of MarShawn Lloyd (knee) uncertain, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.

  • Josh Whyle TE

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Sean Rhyan G

    Questionable

    questionable

  • MarShawn Lloyd RB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Zaire Franklin LB

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Travis Glover OT

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Josh Jacobs RB

    Out

    out

  • Chris Brooks RB

    Injured Reserve

    As Week 10 approaches, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com indicates that Brooks (ankle) may be ready to return from IR.

  • Donovan Jennings G

    Active

  • Trey Smack PK

    Active

    Smack went 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and made all four of his PATs during Sunday's 45-27 win against the Patriots.

Rams

25 listed

  • Tyler Higbee TE

    Active

    Higbee caught one of five targets for 13 yards during Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.

  • Tutu Atwell WR

    Active

    Atwell recorded two catches on five targets for 16 yards during the Rams' 20-13 win over the Commanders on Sunday.

  • Konata Mumpfield WR

    Active

    Mumpfield caught both of his targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.

  • Jordan Whittington WR

    Injured Reserve

    Whittington (back) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.

  • Xavier Smith WR

    Active

    The Rams signed Smith off the 49ers' practice squad Tuesday.

  • Puka Nacua WR

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Trent McDuffie CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Joe Cardona LS

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Terrance Ferguson TE

    Injured Reserve

    Rams head coach Sean McVay acknowledged Monday during his appearance on the "Coach McVay Show" that he remains hopeful Ferguson (hamstring/ankle) will return from injured reserve this season, though he was unwilling to guarantee that the tight end will be activated by the time his 21-day evaluation window closes, Cameron DaSilva of USA Today reports. "I'm reluctant to get too far ahead of anything, just because -- but yes, that is something we'd want to avoid if he's not prepared," McVay said, regarding the possibility of Ferguson being shut down.

  • Colby Parkinson TE

    Active

    Parkinson notched four catches for 13 yards on four targets in a 20-13 win over Washington on Sunday.

  • Brandon McManus PK

    Active

    McManus made both of his field-goal tries and both PATs in Sunday's 20-13 win over the Commanders.

  • Steve Avila G

    Questionable

    Coach Sean McVay said Monday that the Rams haven't decided whether Avila will go to injured reserve with the hamstring injury he suffered during Sunday's game at Washington, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonGBLAR
Against the spread5–3–14–5
Last 105–3–14–5
Favorite3–24–4
Underdog2–1–10–1
Overs–unders3–64–5
Overs–unders, last 103–64–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

GB 2–0 LAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.