San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
- The pick
- SA · Solid
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 115–110
- Fair odds
- -180
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 64%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1524 Elo), lineup changes favor the Trail Blazers and the Trail Blazers have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Spurs
Now >99%
100%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Trail Blazers
Now 67%
70%
with a win
65%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2.5
- SA 59%
- Fair odds
- SA -180
- POR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SA 114.9 – 110.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1670 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +44 | SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 · POR: Missing Ja Morant −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SA +66 Elo | SA 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +7.010th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 110.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 30 |
| 1st of 301670 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Offense, adjusted | +1.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Defense, adjusted | +1.310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.2 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Trail Blazers
+44 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 23.1 | Available |
| Toumani Camara | 28 | 15.0 | Available |
| Damian Lillard | 27 | 25.7 | Available |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 20.6 | Available |
| Donovan Clingan | 25 | 21.8 | Available |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 14.7 | Available |
| Sidy Cissoko | 22 | 12.9 | Available |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 22.8 | Available |
| Chris Youngblood | 13 | 17.1 | Available |
| Yang Hansen | 8 | 13.1 | Available |
| Branden Carlson | 7 | 18.8 | Available |
| Micah Potter | 6 | 15.7 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Spurs
3 listedDevin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Tobias Harris F
OutHarris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Trail Blazers
3 listedJa Morant G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said Morant met with a doctor in Los Angeles, who gave him a positive outlook on his recovery from the hamstring injury. While Nori declined to update Morant's timetable, he added Morant "may not be out for as long as we thought," Trail Blazers Insider Sean Highkin reports.
Vit Krejci G
OutHead coach Micah Nori said that Krejci suffered a left leg fracture during Wednesday's 132-119 win over the Suns, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Shaedon Sharpe G
OutSharpe suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and is expected to miss six months, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 12–4 POR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.
- Nov 7SA 125 @ POR 103Picked SA 66%Hit
- Apr 28POR 95 @ SA 114PlayoffsPicked SA 82%Hit
- Apr 26SA 114 @ POR 93PlayoffsPicked SA 66%Hit
- Apr 24SA 120 @ POR 108PlayoffsPicked SA 53%Hit
- Apr 21POR 106 @ SA 103PlayoffsPicked SA 83%Miss
- Apr 19POR 98 @ SA 111PlayoffsPicked SA 84%Hit
- Apr 8POR 101 @ SA 112Picked SA 58%Hit
- Jan 3POR 115 @ SA 110Picked SA 73%Miss