Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting2-3
- John KleinPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Giménez grounded out to second, Okamoto scored, Smith to third.5–1
- 5Rodríguez tripled to center, Bleday scored and Stephenson scored.5–0
- 3Suárez doubled to left, Jorge scored, Stewart to third.3–0
- 3Stewart grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McLain scored, Jorge third.2–0
- 2Bleday homered to center (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML CIN +139 / TOR -168
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.0%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- CIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −1 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 41–3816th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–81 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 32–51 |
| Underdog | 63–51 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 84–72–4 | 81–74–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–6 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.