Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone homered to left (368 feet), Arozarena scored.7–5
- 9Arozarena tripled to right, We. Wilson scored.7–3
- 9Neto doubled to center, Teodosio scored.7–2
- 8Arroyo reached on infield single to third, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second, Canzone to third.6–2
- 8Rodríguez hit by pitch, Montes scored, Canzone to second, Arozarena to third.6–1
- 7Neto homered to left center (415 feet).6–0
- 6Moore homered to left center (393 feet), Meckler scored and Grissom scored.5–0
- 4Grissom singled to left, Trout scored, Meckler to second.2–0
- 1Meckler scored on Miller wild pitch.1–0
- 1Meckler scored on Miller wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML LAA -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −37 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 1.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +15 Elo | SEA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3027–51 | Road vs home | 41–3714th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–85 | 61–98 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–30 | 36–75 |
| Underdog | 65–55 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–87–4 | 82–67–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–27 SEA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 49.