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Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast

ESPN

Away

Bengals

6-2

65%

at

Home

Commanders

2-5-1

35%

The pick
CIN · Solid
Line
CIN -3.5
Projected
28–24
Fair odds
-184

Your pick

Northwest Stadium · ESPN

The short version

  • The betting line has the Bengals favored by 3.5, and the forecast follows it (Bengals 65%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings like the Bengals more, at 68%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Bengals rate higher (1574 to 1395 Elo) and the Commanders have home field.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bengals

Now 94%

97%

with a win

90%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

Commanders

Now 5%

9%

with a win

3%

with a loss

This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Bengals 65%

Solid
CIN 65%WSH 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.

Market
CIN -3.5
ML CIN -205 / WSH +170
Pre-line forecast
CIN 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CIN -5.5
CIN 68%
Ratings vs. market
+3.7 pts
CIN: Elo 68.1%, market 64.5%
Fair odds
CIN -184
WSH +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CIN 27.5 – 24.0 WSH
Posted spread, posted total 51.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCINWSHWhy
Team rating15741395Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+26+37CIN: Joe Burrow · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsCIN +132 EloCIN 68.1%
Market-implied ratingsCIN 64.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCIN 67.3%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCIN 64.8%93% market, 8% Elo

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

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Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders compared, with each team's league rank
CINStatWSH
2nd of 3230.0Points scored21.521st of 32
14th of 3221.9Points allowed25.324th of 32
4th of 32+8.1Margin−3.821st of 32
3rd of 326.08Yards per play5.2518th of 32
27th of 325.71Yards allowed per play5.2514th of 32
2nd of 323–1Road vs home2–1–116th of 32
21st of 321485Opponent Elo149119th of 32
11th of 321574Elo rating139524th of 32
3rd of 32+2.9Offense, adjusted+0.118th of 32
24th of 32−1.7Defense, adjusted−1.925th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BengalsCommanders
135014001450150015501600league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bengals

25 listed

  • Dohnte Meyers WR

    Active

    Meyers caught two passes for 47 yards on three targets in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.

  • Kyle Dugger S

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Samaje Perine RB

    Active

    Perine rushed 11 times for 43 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.

  • Myles Hinton OT

    Active

  • Connor Lew C

    Active

  • Landon Robinson DT

    Active

  • Andrei Iosivas WR

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Zac Taylor said Monday that Iosivas is doing well in his recovery from left thumb surgery, and the Bengals will "continue to work through this week" to determine when the receiver might return from injured reserve, Laurel Pfahler of the Dayton Daily News reports.

  • Evan McPherson PK

    Active

    McPherson went 2-for-2 on field-goal attempts while making all four of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.

  • Mike Gesicki TE

    Active

    Gesicki caught both of his targets for 11 yards during Sunday's 34-17 win versus Atlanta.

  • Chase Brown RB

    Active

    Brown carried the ball nine times for 57 yards and caught all three of his targets for 18 yards in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.

  • Tee Higgins WR

    Active

    Higgins caught five of six targets for 32 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 34-17 win over Atlanta.

  • Ja'Marr Chase WR

    Active

    Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 34-17 win over the Falcons.

Commanders

25 listed

  • Colson Yankoff TE

    Questionable

    Yankoff (knee) did not participate in Tuesday's walkthrough practice.

  • Treylon Burks WR

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Chig Okonkwo TE

    Active

    Okonkwo (hip) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice.

  • Shy Tuttle DT

    Active

  • Lucas Patrick G

    Doubtful

    doubtful

  • Antonio Williams WR

    Active

    Williams caught three passes for 25 yards on six targets in Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Drew Stevens PK

    Active

    Stevens made both of his field-goal attempts and his only PAT during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Austin Ekeler RB

    Active

    Ekeler rushed eight times for 16 yards and caught two of three targets for 18 yards during Sunday's 20-13 loss to the Rams.

  • Isaac Yiadom CB

    Active

  • Tanoa Togiai G

    Active

  • Fabian Moreau CB

    Active

  • Athan Kaliakmanis QB

    Active

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCINWSH
Against the spread4–44–4
Last 104–44–4
Favorite3–41–1
Underdog1–03–3
Overs–unders5–34–4
Overs–unders, last 105–34–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CIN 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.