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Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast

CBS

Away

Steelers

6-2

65%

at

Home

Eagles

2-7

35%

The pick
PIT · Solid
Line
PIT -4.5
Projected
22–17
Fair odds
-189

Your pick

Lincoln Financial Field · CBS

The short version

  • The betting line has the Steelers favored by 4.5, and the forecast follows it (Steelers 65%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
  • Our own ratings like the Steelers more, at 83%.
  • Behind our ratings' number: the Steelers rate higher (1573 to 1387 Elo), the Eagles are expected to start Joe Milton instead of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have home field.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Steelers

Now 86%

89%

with a win

76%

with a loss

This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.

Eagles

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Steelers 65%

Solid
PIT 65%PHI 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.

Market
PIT -4.5
ML PIT -198 / PHI +164
Pre-line forecast
PIT 79%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PIT -11
PIT 83%
Ratings vs. market
+18.9 pts
PIT: Elo 82.6%, market 63.7%
Fair odds
PIT -189
PHI +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PIT 21.5 – 17.0 PHI
Posted spread, posted total 38.5
Add to your parlay:

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPITPHIWhy
Team rating15731387Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+10−111PIT: Aaron Rodgers · PHI: Joe Milton, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsPIT +270 EloPIT 82.6%
Market-implied ratingsPIT 66.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPIT 79.2%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPIT 65.4%93% market, 8% Elo

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles compared, with each team's league rank
PITStatPHI
17th of 3222.5Points scored16.430th of 32
4th of 3218.0Points allowed24.619th of 32
7th of 32+4.5Margin−8.129th of 32
20th of 325.19Yards per play4.2932nd of 32
6th of 324.98Yards allowed per play5.3718th of 32
23rd of 321–2Road vs home1–426th of 32
28th of 321469Opponent Elo147925th of 32
12th of 321573Elo rating138725th of 32
19th of 32−0.5Offense, adjusted−1.224th of 32
7th of 32+1.2Defense, adjusted+0.811th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SteelersEagles
13501450155016501750league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Steelers

25 listed

  • Ben Skowronek WR

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Doneiko Slaughter CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Brandin Echols CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Chris Boswell PK

    Active

    Boswell made two of his three field-goal attempts and all three PATs in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.

  • Will Howard QB

    Active

  • Drew Allar QB

    Active

  • Eli Heidenreich RB

    Active

  • Michael Pittman Jr. WR

    Injured Reserve

    Pittman (foot) said Monday that he resumed running last week as part of a program to return, but the wideout acknowledged that he's without a clear timeline to be activated from injured reserve, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

  • Germie Bernard WR

    Active

    Bernard caught all five of his targets for 30 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win against Cleveland.

  • Pat Freiermuth TE

    Active

    Freiermuth caught both of his targets for 35 yards in Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns. He added one rushing attempt for a one-yard touchdown.

  • Darnell Washington TE

    Active

    Washington caught three of five targets for 94 yards during Sunday's 27-6 win over the Browns.

  • Rico Dowdle RB

    Active

    Dowdle rushed 15 times for 56 yards and a touchdown in the Steelers' 27-6 win over the Browns on Sunday.

Eagles

25 listed

  • Elijah Moore WR

    Active

    Moore caught one of two targets for minus-3 yards during the Eagles' 19-11 loss to the Giants on Sunday.

  • Hollywood Brown WR

    Active

    Brown recorded one catch for 16 yards on one target Sunday in a loss to the Giants.

  • Darius Cooper WR

    Active

    Cooper caught just two of eight targets for 25 yards in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.

  • Arnold Ebiketie LB

    Active

    Ebiketie will remain with the Eagles after his reported trade to the Bengals on Tuesday fell through and won't be completed, according to NFL reporter Jordan Schultz.

  • Elijah Mitchell RB

    Active

    Mitchell reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Monday.

  • Jake Elliott PK

    Active

    Elliott made his lone field-goal attempt in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.

  • Eli Stowers TE

    Active

    Stowers failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 19-11 loss to the Giants.

  • Dontayvion Wicks WR

    Out

    out

  • DeVonta Smith WR

    Out

    out

  • Jonathan Jones CB

    Out

    out

  • Britain Covey WR

    Out

    out

  • Jihaad Campbell LB

    Out

    out

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPITPHI
Against the spread6–22–7
Last 106–22–7
Favorite5–10–3
Underdog1–12–4
Overs–unders4–44–5
Overs–unders, last 104–44–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PIT 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.