Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Panthers favored by 1.5, and the forecast follows it (Panthers 53%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 56%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Ravens are expected to start Jacoby Brissett instead of Lamar Jackson, the Ravens rate higher (1516 to 1402 Elo) and the Panthers have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Ravens
Now 19%
29%
with a win
12%
with a loss
This game is worth 17 points of playoff chance to them.
Panthers
Now 18%
24%
with a win
11%
with a loss
This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -1.5
- ML BAL +102 / CAR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR -1.5
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -112
- BAL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BAL 21.5 – 23.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −114 | +5 | BAL: Jacoby Brissett, usually Lamar Jackson · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +40 Elo | CAR 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 52.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.0 | Points scored | 24.911th of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.2 | Points allowed | 27.428th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−5.2 | Margin | −2.519th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 5.4912th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3016th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 15345th of 32 |
| 16th of 321516 | Elo rating | 140223rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+1.0 | Offense, adjusted | −1.020th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Defense, adjusted | −2.126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Ravens
25 listedRyan Neuzil C
ActiveThe Falcons traded Neuzil to the Ravens on Tuesday in exchange for Andrew Vorhees and a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reports.
Kyle Hamilton S
QuestionableRavens head coach Jesse Minter said Monday that Hamilton, who couldn't finish last Thursday's loss to Jacksonville due to a hip injury, "looks fairly good," Jonas Shaffer of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Nate Wiggins CB
Questionablequestionable
Jaylinn Hawkins S
Questionablequestionable
Aeneas Peebles DT
ActiveEmery Jones Jr. OT
ActiveKedon Slovis QB
ActiveElijah Sarratt WR
ActiveJacoby Brissett QB
ActiveAhead of Week 10, Ravens head coach Jesse Minter noted "I expect (Brissett) to be our starter" next Monday against the Chargers, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.
Lamar Jackson QB
Injured ReserveJackson, who is scheduled to undergo surgery on his injured right thumb, has told teammates he plans to return later this season, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Malaki Starks S
ActiveStarks finished Baltimore's Week 9 loss to the Jaguars on Thursday with four tackles (three solo) and a forced fumble.
Roquan Smith LB
ActiveSmith finished with eight tackles (two solo) in Thursday's Week 9 loss to Jacksonville.
Panthers
25 listedJohn Metchie III WR
ActiveMetchie caught both of his targets for 40 yards Sunday in a loss to the Broncos.
Mitchell Evans TE
ActiveEvans caught both of his two targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 26-21 loss versus the Broncos.
Trevor Etienne RB
ActiveEtienne carried the ball two times for seven yards and returned one punt for nine yards during Carolina'a loss Sunday to the Broncos.
Jaelan Phillips LB
Questionablequestionable
Will Lee III CB
Questionablequestionable
Damien Lewis G
Questionablequestionable
Bobby Okereke LB
Questionablequestionable
Ryan Fitzgerald PK
ActiveFitzgerald missed his only field-goal attempt and went 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.
Jaycee Horn CB
Injured ReserveHead coach Dave Canales plans to take "the next two days" to discuss Horn (quadriceps), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.
Mike Jackson CB
Injured ReserveHead coach Dave Canales stated the team plans to take "the next two days to discuss" Jackson (groin), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE
ActiveSanders recorded zero targets during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.
TeRah Edwards DT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6–1 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6–1 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.