Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Danny JansenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-3
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell singled to center, Keaschall scored.6–2
- 5Burger homered to center (415 feet).6–1
- 4Jansen homered to left (398 feet).5–1
- 2Nimmo doubled to right, Osuna scored.4–1
- 2Osuna doubled to right, Carter scored.3–1
- 2Carter doubled to right, Jansen scored.2–1
- 2Jansen singled to left, Lopez scored on error, Jansen safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Roden.1–1
- 1Clemens grounded out to first, Keaschall scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / MIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.9%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 41–3714th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Elo rating | 147323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–87 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 21–41 |
| Underdog | 41–30 | 60–38 |
| Overs–unders | 82–67–11 | 85–63–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–17 MIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.