New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Giants at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Giants rate higher (1492 to 1362 Elo), the Colts have home field and the Giants are expected to start J.J. McCarthy instead of Jaxson Dart.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Giants
Now 78%
85%
with a win
70%
with a loss
This game is worth 15 points of playoff chance to them.
Colts
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYG -2.5
- NYG 59%
- Fair odds
- NYG -126
- IND +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYG 24.5 – 22.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −23 | +10 | NYG: J.J. McCarthy (65%) or Jameis Winston (35%), usually Jaxson Dart · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +62 Elo | NYG 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 55.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.8 | Points scored | 20.424th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 27.730th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −7.228th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.06 | Yards per play | 4.5031st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1132nd of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1–1 | Road vs home | 1–319th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321428 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 32 |
| 18th of 321492 | Elo rating | 136229th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−1.1 | Offense, adjusted | +0.613th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.7 | Defense, adjusted | −2.327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Giants
25 listedGreg Desrosiers Jr. RB
ActiveDesrosiers carried the ball three times for 20 yards during the Giants' win over the Eagles on Sunday.
Colton Hood CB
Questionablequestionable
Theo Johnson TE
ActiveJohnson wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.
Darnell Mooney WR
ActiveMooney (chest) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Charlie Jones WR
ActiveJ.J. McCarthy QB
QuestionableMcCarthy (hip) was listed as a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Cam Skattebo RB
OutSkattebo (hamstring) was listed as a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Malachi Fields WR
ActiveFields caught three of five targets for 40 yards in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.
Malik Harrison LB
Questionablequestionable
Abdul Carter LB
Questionablequestionable
Nikko Reed CB
ActiveJosh Sills G
Active
Colts
25 listedLaquon Treadwell WR
ActiveTreadwell logged 52 of the Colts' 64 snaps and was held without a reception on one target in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Deion Burks WR
ActiveBurks played 17 of the Colts' 64 offensive snaps in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys, finishing with a zero-yard reception on his lone target.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR
ActiveThe Colts signed Westbrook-Ikhine off their practice squad Tuesday.
Jonathan Taylor RB
ActiveThe Colts informed Taylor that he won't be traded before Tuesday's deadline, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jalen Travis OT
Doubtfuldoubtful
Justin Walley CB
Questionablequestionable
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Haulcy S
Questionablequestionable
DJ Giddens RB
ActiveGiddens was active but didn't play in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Riley Leonard QB
ActiveCharlie Heck OT
ActivePharaoh Brown TE
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.