New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Chargers favored by 2.5, and the forecast follows it (Chargers 54%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings call it about even.
- Behind our ratings' number: quarterback changes favor the Jets, the Chargers rate higher (1342 to 1305 Elo) and the Chargers have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jets
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Chargers
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Chargers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML NYJ +110 / LAC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -117
- NYJ +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYJ 20.0 – 22.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1305 | 1342 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +33 | −37 | NYJ: Geno Smith · LAC: Justin Herbert (65%) or DJ Uiagalelei (35%) (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +2 Elo | LAC 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 15.132nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 27.428th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−4.6 | Margin | −12.332nd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 4.6829th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6525th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15582nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321305 | Elo rating | 134230th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−2.4 | Offense, adjusted | −2.028th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−2.6 | Defense, adjusted | +0.116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jets
25 listedIsaiah Williams WR
ActiveWilliams did not draw a target in Sunday's Week 9 loss to Kansas City. However, he rushed once for four yards, returned one punt for 18 yards and returned two kickoffs for 55 yards.
Trevin Wallace LB
Questionablequestionable
Garrett Wilson WR
Questionablequestionable
Nahshon Wright CB
Questionablequestionable
Joseph Ossai DE
Questionablequestionable
Mason Taylor TE
ActiveTaylor recorded one catch for 11 yards on two targets in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Isaiah Davis RB
ActiveDavis didn't play any offensive snaps in Sunday's 35-12 loss to the Chiefs.
Troy Reeder LB
ActiveThe Jets signed Reeder to their active roster Monday, Amanda Vogt of the team's official site reports.
Blake Freeland OL
ActiveTim Patrick WR
ActiveKohl Levao G
ActiveWill McDonald IV DE
ActiveMcDonald put in a request for the Jets to trade him ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Ian Rapoport and Rich Cimini of ESPN report.
Chargers
25 listedKeAndre Lambert-Smith WR
ActiveLambert-Smith registered one catch (on four targets) for 50 yards in Sunday's loss to Houston.
Kimani Vidal RB
ActiveVidal rushed seven times for 30 yards in Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans. He added one catch for six yards on three targets.
Oronde Gadsden TE
ActiveGadsden caught two of three targets for 17 yards during the Chargers' 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Charlie Kolar TE
ActiveKolar brought in all three of his targets for 31 yards in a 44-22 loss to the Texans on Sunday.
Justin Herbert QB
QuestionableChargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said that Herbert "should be good to go" for Monday's game at Baltimore after imaging on the quarterback's injured left middle finger returned negative for a fracture, ESPN.com reports.
Kendall Williamson S
Questionablequestionable
Brenen Thompson WR
Questionablequestionable
Deane Leonard CB
Questionablequestionable
Kayode Awosika G
Questionablequestionable
Tre' Harris WR
ActiveHarris caught three of seven targets for six yards during Sunday's 44-22 loss to the Texans.
Ladd McConkey WR
QuestionableChargers coach Jim Harbaugh noted Monday that McConkey is viewed as "day to day" with back spasms, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Theo Wease Jr. WR
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4–1 | 0–7–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–4–1 | 0–7–1 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2–1 | 0–5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.