Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Cowboys favored by 7.5, and the forecast follows it (Cowboys 78%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Cowboys less, at 72%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Cowboys rate higher (1415 to 1296 Elo) and the Cowboys have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Titans
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Cowboys
Now 19%
22%
with a win
10%
with a loss
This game is worth 12 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Cowboys 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML TEN +340 / DAL -440
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 72.5%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -350
- TEN +350 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TEN 22.0 – 29.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1296 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +17 | TEN: Cam Ward · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +168 Elo | DAL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 82.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 75.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 27.36th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 26.225th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.9 | Margin | +1.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.84 | Yards per play | 5.5611th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7929th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 32 |
| 31st of 321449 | Opponent Elo | 146030th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321296 | Elo rating | 141522nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.35th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−2.5 | Defense, adjusted | −2.932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Titans
25 listedTony Pollard RB
ActiveThe Titans opted not to move Pollard ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline, despite him drawing interest from teams, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
James Williams Sr. LB
Injured Reserveir
Tyjae Spears RB
Questionablequestionable
Carnell Tate WR
Questionablequestionable
Tommy Townsend P
Questionablequestionable
Jaylon Jones CB
Questionablequestionable
Dorian Mausi LB
Injured ReserveThe Titans activated Mausi (foot) from injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
Nicholas Singleton RB
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Singleton is "getting better," and the rookie running back could be a candidate to see added opportunities in the second half of the season if lead back Tony Pollard is dealt ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
Calvin Ridley WR
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh confirmed Monday that Ridley was involved in an "unfortunate" interaction over the weekend at Nashville International Airport that is now in the hands of law enforcement, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Joey Slye PK
ActiveSlye hit both field-goal tries and his two extra-point attempts in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Elic Ayomanor WR
ActiveAyomanor caught three of five targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT
Active
Cowboys
25 listedDeMarvion Overshown LB
Questionablequestionable
George Pickens WR
Questionablequestionable
Joey Porter Jr. CB
Questionablequestionable
Luke Schoonmaker TE
Questionablequestionable
KaVontae Turpin WR
Questionablequestionable
Tyler Goodson RB
OutGoodson sustained ACL and MCL sprains in his knee during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts, a source tells Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
Ryan Flournoy WR
ActiveFlournoy caught two of three targets for 53 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win over the Colts.
Jake Ferguson TE
Outout
Donovan Ezeiruaku LB
QuestionableEzeiruaku (ankle) is considered day-to-day, Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
P.J. Locke S
Outout
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE
ActiveSpann-Ford caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 27-23 win versus the Colts.
Ajani Cornelius OT
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–5–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.