Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Jaguars favored by 6, and the forecast follows it (Jaguars 69%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 70%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Jaguars rate higher (1642 to 1492 Elo), the Giants have home field and the Giants are expected to start J.J. McCarthy instead of Jaxson Dart.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jaguars
Now 98%
>99%
with a win
96%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Giants
Now 78%
88%
with a win
75%
with a loss
This game is worth 13 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Jaguars 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -6
- ML JAX -250 / NYG +205
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -6
- JAX 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- JAX: Elo 69.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- JAX -219
- NYG +219 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- JAX 25.3 – 19.3 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −23 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · NYG: J.J. McCarthy (65%) or Jameis Winston (35%), usually Jaxson Dart (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +145 Elo | JAX 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 70.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 68.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.6 | Points scored | 22.816th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3215.1 | Points allowed | 21.512th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.5 | Margin | +1.316th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.90 | Yards per play | 5.0621st of 32 |
| 20th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.029th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 142832nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321642 | Elo rating | 149218th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+2.4 | Offense, adjusted | −1.123rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+2.0 | Defense, adjusted | −0.720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jaguars
25 listedBrian Thomas Jr. WR
ActiveThe Jaguars have relayed to inquiring teams that they intend to keep Thomas through Tuesday's trade deadline, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Davon Godchaux DT
ActiveThe Jaguars acquired Godchaux from the Saints on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, though the selection could turn into a 2027 sixth-round pick if "conditions are met," Jonathan Jones of The Athletic of The Athletic reports.
CJ Williams WR
ActiveWesley Williams DE
ActiveFoyesade Oluokun LB
ActiveOluokun recorded seven tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 33-10 victory over Baltimore.
Tanner Koziol TE
ActiveKoziol finished Thursday's 33-10 win over Baltimore with two catches for 15 yards on two targets.
Nate Boerkircher TE
ActiveBoerkircher hauled in two of three targets for 61 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over Baltimore.
Josh Cameron WR
ActiveCameron caught his only target for six yards in Thursday night's 33-10 victory over the Ravens.
Ameer Abdullah RB
ActiveAbdullah carried the ball seven times for 30 yards and returned one kickoff for 24 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Brenton Strange TE
ActiveStrange caught both of his targets for 22 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Travis Hunter WR
ActiveHunter caught his only target for minus-1 yard and lost a fumble in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB
ActiveRodriguez rushed 10 times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 13 yards in the Jaguars' 33-10 win over the Ravens on Thursday night.
Giants
25 listedGreg Desrosiers Jr. RB
ActiveDesrosiers carried the ball three times for 20 yards during the Giants' win over the Eagles on Sunday.
Colton Hood CB
Questionablequestionable
Theo Johnson TE
ActiveJohnson wasn't targeted in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.
Darnell Mooney WR
ActiveMooney (chest) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Charlie Jones WR
ActiveJ.J. McCarthy QB
QuestionableMcCarthy (hip) was listed as a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Cam Skattebo RB
OutSkattebo (hamstring) was listed as a full participant in Tuesday's practice, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.
Malachi Fields WR
ActiveFields caught three of five targets for 40 yards in Sunday's 19-11 win over the Eagles.
Malik Harrison LB
Questionablequestionable
Abdul Carter LB
Questionablequestionable
Nikko Reed CB
ActiveJosh Sills G
Active
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.